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Wednesday, February 06, 2008

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YES!!!! Paul has projected the Yanks as the AL East winners!!!!

I kid. Thanks for all the work, Paul. I'm not as optimistic as PECOTA is--I think the Yanks will be good, but this is unbelievable.

A banner day for YFSF thanks to all of this amazing work from Paul.

Hah! Thanks for doing this Paul. I know it must have burned, but I'm glad to have your insights.

Thanks again so much for all your efforts, Paul.

Hate to point out an error, but for the 2008 predicted pitching numbers you wrote "2007" again.

Aside from that, amazing work. I'm somewhat skeptical too that there will be two 100-win teams in the same division, but it should be very exciting this year.

It's also interesting that PECOTA predicts both IPK and Joba will have better years than Hughes. That's something else I'm skeptical about.

I think the relative PECOTA projections for IPK, Hughes and Joba are very much age-related. Joba and IPK might be more major league ready--although, IPK and HUghes are essentially a wash--but I'd imagine the ceiling for Hughes and Joba is similar. Although, PECOTA is kind of bat shit crazy about Joba.

Wow nice work on this, I really enjoyed reading it. Thank you.

Yeah, Joba had an amazing run as a set-up man, but I'm genuinely surprised that PECOTA thinks he'll have great success in his first year as a starter. I'm not trying to hate on Joba, I just think he will take longer to excell as a starter.

Another thing that surprises me is how few wins PECOTA projects for the starters. Honestly, 12 games is the most a starter will win? Impossible.

i'm projecting 8 days till pitchers and catchers report.

well - I was a little pissed when they predicted the huge drop off of Beckett's numbers from 2007 to 2008, but I see they did the same thing to Wang as well, so I guess it is just how the system works. I was also pissed that they thought Manny would have the same type of HR year in 2008 as 2007, but then I see Arod's numbers drop 18 - so again, the system is consistently shitty at least.

Oh, and btw, thanks for putting this (and everything else) together!

PECOTA -- and all projection systems, for that matter -- tend to be very conservative with wins. I put them there for consistency's sake, but they're generally pretty useless.

I'll still be predicting the Red Sox to win the AL East in 2008, fwiw. I think PECOTA's being too generous with the Yankee pitching and way too pessimistic with the Red Sox' lineup.

I project the Yankees to break the MLB record for wins in a season and to win the AL East title handily. The Yankees will then proceed to sweep through the playoffs and win the World Series without losing a single game.

All will be right in the Yankee Universe.

This is not a reverse jinx--honest. ;-)

From Fire Joe Morgan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHPlYnpiByA

Hilarious.

"...I'll still be predicting the Red Sox to win the AL East in 2008,..."

bookmarked...

If the Sox and Yanks combine for 204 wins, there would likely have to be some ugly records in the rest of the A.L. East.

Agreed, Hudson. Which is why the Yankee projections are clearly too optimistic. ;-)

Paul, both of these were very nice reads.

OT: I'm sure there will be a McNamee's Bloody Syringes thread *eventually* on this site...

The pitching and bullpen for the Yankees are indeed way too optimistic. However, it's countered by the across-the-board 15 percentiles for each Yankee hitter. It looks to be just as pessimistic for the Yankee sluggers than the Sox sluggers. I'd definitely project the offense to be better, but the pitching, especially the bullpen, to be worse. If the pitching does not allow over 700 runs, it will be a miracle.

Well, considering the O's will probably lose ~100 games this year, maybe 100 wins apiece for NYY and BOS isn't so far-fetched...

Thanks for the great work, Paul!

yeah, the most volatile projections would probably be for young pitchers and middle relievers. This is very optimistic for the Yanks, and, unfortunately, I don't buy it.

Sox REPEAT!

...nuff said!

Tampa bay finishes ahead of the Stanks

Heads roll and LA Joe (along with his fav Proctor) gets the last laugh!!!!

I am skeptical about:

Cano's regression
ARod's regression being so large
Hughes' poor performance
Veras being the 4th best arm in the pen (I'll be surprised if Ohlendorf is not among the top 4)
Wang's poor performance

I think PECOTA is too optimistic for:
Kennedy
Ramirez
maybe Farnsworth

And that's about it.

Maybe I'm just an optimistic Yankee fan, but I think things will be considerably better than PECOTA predicts. Maybe not better than 103 wins, but still.

Paul - I'm curious. You split the difference between Marcel, Pecota, and Bill James' numbers for the Yankees offense, but you stayed with just Pecota numbers for the Yankees pitching. Maybe I'm not understanding clearly, but that seems inconsistent to me. What would the Yankees pitching numbers be if you split the difference between the three projections?

Hey MattyMatty,

My intent was to use PECOTA only on both pitching and offense for both teams because it worked so well last year. But as I went through the offenses, PECOTA looked unusually pessimistic on both teams' projections, and I knew Pinto had already done some work with the other systems.

PECOTA does seem unusually rosy on pitching, especially with the Yanks, and I could do some averaging with other systems, but I'd have to do the work myself and, well, I'm lazy. :-P Maybe I'll work on something this upcoming week, if I have the time.

It seems PECOTA is always pessimistic when it comes to hitting. I think that has to do with the historic norms that its working with. They tend to even out the bumps, so to speak, in players performance. You almost never see a Pecota projection that says a player who is older and had a down year (Drew, for example) has a career year. You might see the projection show a bit of improvement (say, due to BABIP or something), but mostly it seems that PECOTA is a pretty conservative (or some might say pessimistic) projector.

Thats essentially what I was trying to get at, that using one method for one team and then a different method for the other team strikes me as inconsistent.

The other thing that you didn't take into account (for reasons you outlined yourself, i.e. you don't want to spend 20+ years on this) is potential for injury. Off the top of my head I don't think this favors either team, but it would be interesting to see how it plays out.

Plus, I wonder what Schilling's injury does to the Sox. Are they better now (I know PECOTA loves Buchholz, as do I)?

Thanks for the hard work.

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