While You Were Sleeping (And We Weren't) ...

... the Red Sox became the favorites to land Johan Santana.

While Hank Steinbrenner set deadlines and publicly lusted after Johan Santana, the Red Sox just bided their time and stayed in the game.

And what do you know? As Monday night turned into Tuesday morning at the winter meetings, suddenly it was the Red Sox who loomed as the favorites to pull off a deal for the best pitcher in baseball.

Midnight Eastern time, and midnight Central time passed with Hank Steinbrenner seemingly sticking by his guns.

"Brian (Cashman) was giving them one more shot, and we'll see what happens, " Steinbrenner said. "It doesn’t look good to me."

Steinbrenner later added: "We'll sleep on it. Whatever it is, we'll discuss it one final time. But I'm beginning to think they just don’t want to trade him."

Concurrently, reports surfaced that Boston and Minnesota had resumed talks, then just after 2 a.m. Eastern time, the Globe dropped a bombshell:

The Red Sox have traded medical information with the Minnesota Twins on Jon Lester, which means that talks between the two teams have progressed, with the Twins taking a serious look at the Sox offer.

The sides went to bed an hour later, with the Twins mulling two possibilities, Stark reports: Either trade for the four-player package including Lester and Coco Crisp initially reported by the St. Paul Pioneer Press last week or trade for a three-player package featuring Jacoby Ellsbury.

"Momentous news may await in the morning," Edes said in his blog post. Undoubtedly. But, never counting out the Yankees, momentous for whom?

Comments

[Dionysus]

You will NOT win the Craziest LAtest Up Last Posting award, Paul! I shall not have it!

[Zulu.as.SF]

I don't post here much, but I'll take a "latest post of the night" award where I can get it.

Man - Santana for Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Bowden-or-Masterson would be fantastic for this Sox fan!

/yes, this is the end of the night for me, not the beginning of the morning
//hoping for good news when I wake

[SoxFan]

This year's Santana sweepstakes is like the Matsuzaka sweepstakes last year in nerves and anticipation as to who will get this year's prized pitcher.

Yankees vs. Red Sox.

Red Sox vs. Yankees.

All they need is the commissioner opening up a sealed envelope from Price/Waterhouse and announcing And The Winner Is...

[SF]

I don't know if the request for medical information indicates a deal is imminent. It could. But it could also just be the Twins preening for his Hankness.

[AndrewYF]

Well, just like the Arizona GM was gone when he made that horrendous deal with the Sox for Schilling, we will know that Bill Smith will be gone in 2009 after he makes one of the worst trades in recent memory.

[Jay-YF]

The conventional wisdom is that the Twins want Kennedy as well as Hughes in any deal, but from what I gather, they're happy with Hughes and Melky, but want a top tier prospect as the number three player in a 3-1 deal.

My guess is, the Yankees will relent on Tabata, Horne, or Jackson.

To be honest, I can see why the Yankees are holding out on Kennedy, but why Horne? He's a huge question mark stuff-wise and health-wise. I know Cashman wants to build the Yankees around the young guns and that's great. But once again, this is Johan Santana. Not Kevin Brown and not Randy Johnson. They're not looking to deal for an aging pitcher whose best days are behind him. This is a trade for one of the best pitchers in the majors who will only be 29 when the 2008 season starts.

[AndrewYF]

The Yankees are not including another top prospect in the deal because they are including the top pitching prospect in the game. I mean, where does it stop? First it was 'include Hughes and you got it', then it was Hughes and other top prospects. It has to stop somewhere. Plus, if Bill Smith really is that stupid to take Lester or Ellsbury - plus other assorted scrap over Hughes and Cabrera, there is absolutely nothing the Yankees can do about it. Their offer of Hughes and Cabrera is heads and shoulders above one of Lester+ or Ellsbury+. Including more at this point would be folly.

Horne is not a questionable prospect. He is a good prospect, better than the likes of Masterson or Bowden, and would probably be the top pitching prospect on many major league teams. While his health may still be questionable (needs to get through another season before his health becomes less than questionable, maybe), his stuff is absolutely not in question.

[sam-YF]

I really dont see how that package would be better than Hughes, Melky, and the third but i dont work for the twins and I dont know who the third would be

[Paul SF]

He is a good prospect, better than the likes of Masterson or Bowden, and would probably be the top pitching prospect on many major league teams.

Not to say it isn't true, but I've never heard that before.

Any idea what time MLB executives wake up after negotiating until 3 a.m.? Hey, the rest of us still had to get up for work this morning...

[SF]

I don't think the Twins should accept just a top prospect and a middling player for someone like Santana. I have refrained from commenting on who should be in the mix for Johan, since I think most of the reporting is suspect and primarily misdirection. But simply put, the Twins should be demanding at least two or three tip-top players for a guy as proven and youthful as Santana. Or, a relatively large quantity of high-upside youngsters. Neither Lester/Ells and Hughes/Melky qualify as great deals for the best pitcher in the world, in my book.

Because: as great a prospect as Hughes is (and as promising as Ellsbury appears), they are just prospects, with potentially years needed to mature. If Hughes accomplishes a fraction of what Santana has accomplished in the next ten years that would be quite stupendous. If Ellsbury turns into an all-star (and he might not, frankly), that could take a good deal of time as the league adjusts to him. The fact is that Hughes may be two or three years away from being a dominant starter, at which point he is no longer going to be as inexpensive option for the Twins. That's the hitch: though the players being offered are cheap now, when they blossom and mature they will no longer be so inexpensive. If I were the Twins I'd sit tight on my demands for players that both the Sox and Yankees don't really need now or in the coming year or two. With Santana in the fold, the Yankees can afford to trade another younger pitcher, and the Sox can too. I'd call both teams' bluff, if in fact that's the situation.* It's only December and Santana is under contract. His threat to not waive the NTC at the deadline is similarly hollow: if Johan can engineer a trade to a team of his liking and an extension in July why would he refuse to waive a NTC? The Twins hold most of the chips, the way I see it.

Which means that they'll trade him for not very much and in the next hour.

* I have also said that I think that Santana will go for less than we all think, so I have now been spun into confusion by all these silly pieces of reporting...

[AndrewYF]

Well Paul, assuming Buchholz and Lester are 'graduated', he would be the best pitching prospect on the Sox. As it stands, he's the best prospect behind Kennedy on the Yankees. He's certainly no where near 'throw-in' material.

[Paul SF]

According to Baseball America's prospect list this year, Bowden was No. 83, and Horne was unranked. Of course, many of the players have graduated since then, and performance has shifted the rankings, I'm sure. They don't come out until spring 2008 though, and it's the only prospect list I could think to find quickly. Masterson is now considered a better prospect than Bowden, so who knows? But I'm still highly skeptical that Horne is as high a prospect as you say.

[sam-YF]

Baseball prospectus has Horne has the yankees #5 propsect overall with a ranking of 4 starts. This is equal to Kennedy, Jackson, and Tabata. The kid is young but he is routinely talked about along with the "big 3" in reference to the resurgence of the yanks minor league system.

[sam-YF]

Horne's 07 AA stats are great.
153 IP, 12-4, 3.11, 165K, 57 BB

[Mike YF]

And much better than Masterson or Bowden. Of course, he's two years older.

[AndrewYF]

Horne took humongous strides this year. Where were Chamberlain and Kennedy and Buchholz on that list last year?

Last year's list means less than nothing now. Bowden went up to AA and struggled. Masterson posted some insane groundball rates but overall only spent 50 innings in AA, and he still wasn't all that great. Horne was the Eastern League pitcher of the year by putting up a very strong year in AA. He also has much love from scouts as he throws 4 pitches and his 4-seamer is in the mid-90s.

This time last year, Horne was coming back from TJ surgery and had posted a not-that-great year in Tampa. Of course he was unranked.

[AndrewYF]

Mike has clearly gone insane.

[SF]

Anyone remember Rocky Coppinger? He was an incredible prospect with incredible numbers at the age of 21 for the Orioles. He flamed out.

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=18681

These guys are all so hard to assess. We look at their numbers and see one thing, but the scouts who watch the players see other things. We tend, as fans, to value the statistics over the observational; since none of us have seen performances for the most part we begin to judge our prospects by the sheer data. Hence, we think that one player is by far the better prospect, even though a team's front office may have other ideas which will end up flummoxing us when said player is the guy who clinches a deal despite lesser statistics.

[Jay-YF]

Andrew, my mistake (in part). I was reading an older evaluation of Horne. Still, Baseball Prospectus lists his chances of making the majors at 30% because of health issues.

That being said, according to Heyman, the Twins were saying they wanted Hughes, Cabrera, Horne AND Jackson to close the deal. That's just nucking futs and I would have told them to get lost.

Bill Smith would be a complete idiot were he to accept what the Red Sox were offering after turning down the Yankees.

Honestly, I can't figure out what Smith is thinking. Jon Lester has been a great story, but he's a 3-4 starter at BEST. People will say he's 11-2, but wins are a poor measure of success. In 63 innings last year, he yielded 10 home runs, had an era of 4.74 and a WHIP of 1.46.

Hughes has a better K/9 than Lester, better WHIP, better BB/9, better H/9, etc. The list goes on. What the hell am I missing here?

Then you go on to Melky and Coco Crisp. I would say that Crisp has a defensive edge, with Cabrera having the edge on offense. The biggest difference between the two is that Cabrera is 5 years younger than Crisp, and he's cheaper.

But Smith is willing to do the deal because of Justin Masterson? If Theo can get Bill Smith to accept that deal over what the Yankees are offering, then maybe he deserves the title of 'genius.'

[Mike YF]

Right, that two year difference is because of TJ surgery. Still, it's a bit weird that the Yanks are insisting on holding onto a guy with that history. My only guess is because the Twinkies want Ajax too. I mean the Yanks wouldn't hold it up if it were:

Hughes + Melky + Horne

Would they?

[Mike YF]

Andrew -

If the Sox get Santana they've now taken the "expected championship" mantle and paying a ton of cash in the process. They really would be the "new" Yankees.

They win. Meh - it was expected.

But the Yankees win - Booyah!

I can deal with that. It hasn't been much fun every year being expected to win a championship and then the season's called a failure when you don't.

[sam-YF]

Mike i dont understand your logic one bit. Even if with the favorite status, you think sox fans would be any less happy if their team wins? You think yankee fans would be less disappointed? I certainly would not like it.

Mike, I really don't think the Sox mind being the 'new Yankees'. That just means they're going to be successful. It's not really an insult.

[SF]

If the Sox get Santana they've now taken the "expected championship" mantle

Um, they already have that mantle, sorry to break the news to you. I imagine this has been very difficult for some Yankee fans to assimilate, such is the state of denial that some of you guys seem to be in!

;-)

[yankeemonkey]

I dunno. If that's the package Twins settle for, it will be apparent that they simply didn't want to deal with the Yankees. The Sox' offer is good, but not spectacular. The Yankees were once again asked for the moon AND the stars.

If anything, this should be another lesson to the Yankee management that they need to develop their own, because everyone else is always looking for a king's ransom.

I'm ok if this is what ends up happening. Santana in Boston is less than optimal, but so is stripping the farm for one player, no matter who that player is.

[Nick-YF]

This is crappy news. Not what I wanted to read first thing in the morning.

[John - YF]

Only two ways Cashman can leave these meetings is if he lands Santana or if Santana winds up in Queens. Anything other then those two options and Brian should find a nice second home down there.

[John - YF]

Hey no bad news here Nick! We would still have all our Minor Leaguers!!! Now we just have to hope the unimaginable happens and they all pan out/stay healthy and in 4-5 seasons we will be right back in the thick of things!

[John - YF]

Lester-Crisp-Lowrie-Masterson...is the offer. Are you kidding me Cash? You can't ante up and beat that? Wow.

[Paul SF]

How are you feeling this morning, YM? I'm a half-hour late to work and very groggy...

Latest from Hank, via AP:

"It's still something that we can't do," Steinbrenner said Tuesday morning. "As far as I'm concerned, it's probably off."

[Pat (SF)]

Sox Prospect wrote: Lowrie could use another half-season at AAA, but if he played for a smaller market team he would probably start the 2008 season in the majors.

Anyways, if the deal goes through, and the Sox end up with Buchholz, Ellsbury, and Santana at the start of '08, I'm sorry YFs, that just makes me pumped! I would be crushed if he went to the Yankees for a similar deal.

[SF]

ha, great line from Theo via the Globe:

Neither Theo Epstein nor Yankees GM Brian Cashman, in separate sessions with reporters, were willing to acknowledge publicly that talks were ongoing with the Twins.

"Bust out the fiction," was Epstein's tongue-in-cheek recommendation to Boston reporters seeking an update on talks with the Twins.

[Nick-YF]

Is there any reason why Paul isn't Nashville right now?! Fox, ESPN, CNNSI, someone has to hire this guy!

[Paul SF]

Haha, I'll be perfectly willing to sacrifice myself for the blog to pay for me to go wherever they're holding the Winter Meetings next year.

[yankeemonkey]

Paul, I'm like a zombie today...and the worst is that we still don't really know anything, even after the candlelight vigil! Of course the negotiating parties probably won't wake up until noon.

[yankeemonkey]

Lester-Crisp-Lowrie-Masterson...is the offer. Are you kidding me Cash? You can't ante up and beat that? Wow.

They can - all they have to do is cough up Kennedy or Horne+Jackson. But hopefully they won't, nor should they.

[Paul SF]

I love how most of the debate in this situation has been internal -- SFs disagreeing over whether to include Ellsbury, YFs over whether to include Kennedy.

I'm with John on this one. Hughes, Cabrera, Horne, Jackson should be on the table for the Yanks, particularly given their need.

[John - YF]

Why YM, please tell me why?

Um, they already have that mantle, sorry to break the news to you. I imagine this has been very difficult for some Yankee fans to assimilate, such is the state of denial that some of you guys seem to be in!

Uh, SF, how many times during the season did you say the Sox suck and would never make the post-season?

Talk about denial! ;-0

[yankeemonkey]

Well, for one, giving up Cabrera AND Ajax ensures that the outfield stinks not just this season but for the foreseeable future, unless yet ANOTHER uber-expensive free agent is signed. Giving up Hughes+Horne depletes the Yankees' pitching depth. I'm willing to bet a tidy sum that Horne will be a better injury replacement midseason than one Kei Igawa.

Paul, would you have traded Lester+Ellsbury+Buchholz? Because that would be an equivalent package.

[SF]

Uh, SF, how many times during the season did you say the Sox suck and would never make the post-season?

Never, actually. I said they weren't built to go deep into the post-season.

Splitting hairs, sort of: I was wrong.

[Paul SF]

I don't think that's the equivalent package, YM.

Both teams have a Big Three, the Yankees' being the more valuable because all three are pitchers.

Both teams have a solid group of five or so second-tier prospects. For argument's sake, let's say they're all roughly equal.

I think the Yankees' max offer should be Hughes, Cabrera, Horne and Jackson (or Tabata or another second-tier bat, if you prefer). That's one member of the Big Three, two second-tier prospects and a below-average but young MLB player (sorry, but it's true!).

I think the Sox' max offer should be Lester, Ellsbury and Masterson. That's two members of the Big Three and one second-tier prospect. I could even part with Lowrie in that deal, which would be two Big Three members and two second-tier prosects.

I think those are roughly equivalent. The Yanks are right to refuse giving up two of their Big Three pitchers, and the Sox are rigt to refuse to give up both of their top two pitchers. But I don't see the rationale for holding out on second-tier prospects at least 10 months from the bigs when you're discussing the best pitcher in the game at 29 years old.

[yankeemonkey]

Jackson and Tabata may be a ways away from the bigs, but they are not second-tier prospects. I thought that was agreed upon?

Anyway, I'm not trying to convert anyone to my opinion. Everyone is entitled to one, we'll just agree to disagree!

[sam-YF]

I agree with you Paul. If the yankees lose Santana over a AA prospect Im gonna be unhappy. The fact is I havent seen a single 4 player offer from the yanks and that is a problem in my books. The sox are offering 4 players equal or not, as SF said numbers make a big difference in the prospect game.

The big problem here is the inclusion of Hughes, the yankees want him to essentially count as 2 since he is such a high level guy. From the Twins perspective thats all well and good but if he doesnt pan, they have no fall back. I think the Yankees should try to put IPK in with Cabrera, Horne, and Ajax. That would be a nice package for the twins and likely better than the sox package. However, since Hughes is already on the table, pulling him back is a major issue. At this point i feel like i should just cross my fingers that the Sox and Johan cant match up on a contract, as likely as that may be.

[John - YF]

If the Sox pull off this trade and still have Ellsbury and Buchholz, Theo Epstein should be awarded GM of the Century. The Sox get the best pitcher in the game. They get to play Ellsbury everyday (Isn't that what Sox fans wanted anyway?) and they get to hold onto their best SP prospect who coincedentally threw a no hitter. But not to worry Yankee fans we still have all our prospects. You guys make me laugh.

[Paul SF]

I think numbers do play a big role. Lester is obviously not Hughes, but he IS a starter with a fairly high ceiling (as high as a No. 2), and in addition to him, the Sox are offering to fill their CF need with a superior defensive player, their left-side infield need with a plus-offensive player, AND give them a high-upside pitching prospect.

That's more needs met for the Twins than simply Hughes, Cabrera and, well, no one as yet.

[sam-YF]

John if it goes down like that it seems pretty clear to me that the Yankees price was higher than the Sox price. There is no way to prove it, etc but thats how it feels. I dunno what to say about that but it sucks. I want them badly to make this trade happen but what can we do?

[Brad]

Why are we discussing this? The midnight deadline has come and gone. The Yankees are out of it, right? I mean, they aren't going to change the offer now, are they? They can't backtrack on what they told the Twins about the "deadline", will they? Really, I think this is getting funny at this point. Im pretty sick of hearing about Johan Santana, and he hasn't thrown a single pitch for either team.
Just deal him already.
On another note, how funny would it be for a team like the Dodgers to just swoop in and give up everything to get him right out from under our noses! ha.

[yankeemonkey]

Watching the fans' reactions over this is priceless.

The Yanks boards have gone from "Fuck the Twins, we don't need no stinkin' Santana!" to "Woe is us, do whatever it takes Cash, just stop Sox from getting him!!!"

The Twins boards have gone from "Fuck the Yankees, take the Boston offer - Bill Smith is teh awesome hellz yeah!" to "Noooo, Boston offer sucks, go back to the Yankees, I'll never be a Twins fan again!!!"

Heh.

[Paul SF]

Also, the Twins' need is hitting, not pitching as much. They still have a loaded roster full of young pitchers. I wonder if Lowrie is a bigger part of this deal than we realized. The Yankees really have no comparable young bats to offer.

[Nick-YF]

YM, I'd like to think that most of the Yanks fans on this site have been consistent througout. The mantra: Johan Santana is Johan Freaking Santana!

[John - YF]

I don't know Sam, but Cash can't let that happen. It's his job to get creative and make this happen. What I don't get is this, the Twins want IPK, but why? They have their rotation set for next season. Just plug in Lester/Hughes for Santana and then you have Liriano, Baker, Slowey and Bonser. If they were to trade any of those they then have Perkins and Blackburn.

[Nick-YF]

Paul, that's exactly right. The Yanks just don't have that many good positional prospects right now. Tabata and AJax are the best, and they're young.

[AndrewYF]

The Yankees have Wilson Betemit, who has considerably more major league experience and upside than Lowrie. If Lowrie was actually a big part of the deal, Betemit would have been involved on the Yankees end.

The Twins, if they accept the deal sans Ellsbury, are not really getting any hitting. Sure, Lowrie is probably better than Nick Punto, but he is extremely far from a guarantee, and from what I've read, needs a nice half-season in AAA before even thinking about contributing at the major league level.

[sam-YF]

The yankees can easily backtrack on the deadline, nobody took it seriously in the first place. Its a common tactic used in negotiations. They did the same thing during the Randy Johnson talks, literally walked out. As much as some would like to make it seem like weakness or a really bad move if they do come back with another offer, its just not. Feigning lack of interest is a good tactic. As I said last night it helped me get counterfeit DVD's in china for about half the asking price!

[Paul SF]

The Star-Tribune:

"Around 2 a.m. I contacted someone with knowledge of the negotiations. That person had heard that the deal was for four players: Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. Notice that Jacoby Ellsbury is not part of the deal.

I didn’t run with it then because I really wanted to be sure. But I want to let you know this morning that’s what I’m hearing. I’m still trying to get further confirmation of the potential deal. Maybe the exchange of medicals isn’t as serious of a step as we think. Maybe a name has been switched (i.e. Rincon, Juan for Morlan, Eddie)."

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=285

[John - YF]

I have never changed my tune, this is Johan Santana, not Rick Rhoden. Prospects are great and being able to say we built our FS back up is wonderful, but what are the chances all these can't miss guys pan out? Don't trade the farm, but don't tell me about Austin Jackson being the next _____.

[Nick-YF]

John, additionally, prospects are especially great when they can be used to land the best pitcher in baseball! We have a recent object lesson in how prospect value is volatile in Lastings Milledge. Oh from such great heights do we fall.

[John - YF]

Amen Nick. On that note I too can't let Johan hold me captive. I need to get out and do some things. Damn this Johan keeping everyone glued to the computer screen! I for one will not stand for it a second longer. Congrats Sox fans!

[sam-YF]

I really hope this doesnt turn into a knee-jerk trade for Haren. If they are gonna spend the prospects spend them on the best.

[SF]

Congrats Sox fans!

For what, the World Series? Nothing has been announced.

[AndrewYF]

John, if the Twins accept this junkyard of players from the Sox for Santana, it wouldn't matter what the Yankees included, and I can guarantee you it wasn't Austin Jackson or Alan Horne not being included that held up the deal. Bill Smith may just have an IQ under 70, or Pohlad really has it out for old George. It's obvious the Yankee offering was being held to a completely different standard than the Sox. For what reason, who knows.

[Paul SF]

Congrats Sox fans!

Damn you, John.

He's definitely going to the Yanks now.

[SF]

I'd say that Jed Lowrie, while totally unknown with respect to the Major Leagues, has at the least more potential than Wilson Betemit. And he's going to be far cheaper over the next four years. Betemit had a good half first-season five seasons ago, but has done very little since then. Wilson Betemits are a dime a dozen.

[dc]

so some of you guys stayed up until after 3:00am, now you're late for work, just getting to work, whatever...it's after 10:00am and your still blogging....?...i want your job!

not surprised the sox emerged as the front-runner this morning...the twins are probably annoyed with hank for not sucking up to them...not sure it helps the sox much though because it would appear that they'd still have to give up either ells or lester...apparently hughes is not as highly regarded [by the twins anyway] as we yank fans would like to think...

john, don't be too hard on your fellow yank fans for taking a "whatever" attitude about this...there's not much we can do about it if the twins have a different view of what they think is better for them than we do...it's human nature to try to convince oneself that not all is lost...being a "sure thing" implies that you chances are very good, but does not guarantee anything...

paul, start clearing a spot in the trophy case for theo's executive of the year award if he pulls off this trade with either scenario...he's outsmarted the yankees again...

[SF]

"If the Red Sox get Santana," said an executive of one NL team that's grateful to be in the other league, "they might be the best team in the history of the frigging universe."

From Jayson Stark's column. Talk about hyperbolizing. What a ridiculous overstatement.

[yankeemonkey]

DC, how did Theo outsmart the Yankees?

[Paul SF]

Honestly, Andrew, has it occurred to you that maybe you're overvaluing the Yankees' players and undervaluing the Sox' by just a smidge?

I like how because a GM apparently prefers a larger package that fills more of his immediate needs, but because that packagae isn't (reportedly) the Yankees', he must have a low IQ or has it in for the Yankees.

Here's a thought: Maybe he doesn't value the Yankees' package as much as the Sox' and has perfectly legitimate reasons for doing so.

[IronHorse (yf)]

John and Nick,

I agree with you to a point re: prospects being great when they can land you great pitchers, but I don't agree with Lastings Milledge as a parallel. Great prospect position players are one thing. Great prospect pitchers are another. The Red Sox have treated Ellsbury as their Milledge in these discussions. I wouldn't call the Yankees protection of the Hughes/Kennedy similarly.

Having said that, I don't know how good an idea it is to hold on to those two at the expense of losing out on Santana. I wrote here a couple days ago that I would be OK - pained, but OK - with Hughes, Kennedy, Cabrera going to Minnesota for Santana and I think I still feel the same way. But I won't be shattered by this either if it doesn't work for NY - I'd just be mildly depressed for the next couple years, but happy to watch young pitching talent develop.

[dc]

"they might be the best team in the history of the frigging universe."

i'll be sure to remember that you neither made this statement, nor did you agree with it sf...

;)

[TJ]

I like how because a GM apparently prefers a larger package that fills more of his immediate needs, but because that packagae isn't (reportedly) the Yankees', he must have a low IQ or has it in for the Yankees.

Well he is from New Hampshire, so you never know lol

[TJ]

errr to clarify a bit, not saying he has a low IQ, but perhaps has it in for the Yanks :p

[AndrewYF]

Funny, I thought the Santana deal wasn't going to be about quantity?

You're absolutely kidding yourself if you think the Twins feel this offer 'fills their needs' simply by including Lowrie.

How does Lester fill their needs at all? How does Crisp, who will be making millions of dollars more than he is worth, fill their needs at all? The Twins may have some weird way of looking at players, but to think at this point that it's smart is pretty silly. This is the same exact deal the Sox offered weeks ago. Even if they think they're getting a good deal, it's horrendous negotiating. There is absolutely no way this is a good deal for the Twins, or even on the same planet as Hughes, Melky and Kennedy, which is what they were actually asking from the Yankees last night. Where did these demands go? It's frighteningly obvious the Yankees were held to an impossible standard in these negotiations. Nothing is confirmed yet, but boy will Bill Smith look stupid.

[Nick-YF]

no one's mentioning the Twins' financial incentive to trade Johan to the Yanks! Think about it. No matter where he goes he's going to make an absurd amount. But if he goes to the Yanks, that means more luxury tax, and revenue sharing for other etams like the Twins. They stand to make a ton of money that they can use for not re-signing their star players who they will then send off to the Yanks to make more money and so on.

[AndrewYF]

Note that most of this is frustrated and confused ranting.

[TJ]

The Luxury tax isnt part of revenue sharing.

[Nick-YF]

well, then there goes the Yanks' leverage!

[sam-YF]

I believe the tax does go into revenue sharing. It at least gets redistributed to the teams. Where else would it go?

[Devine]

Don't worry! I'm sure the Yanks haven't made their final offer, absolutely sure. Would YFs be happy or unhappy if they went to Hughes, Kennedy, Cabrera?

[yankeemonkey]

I may be in the minority on this but...While winning championships is nice, it's not the only thing, not everything, despite what Derek Jeter might tell you. I enjoy watching baseball for 162+19 days a year, not just the 19 in October. And as such, I will enjoy watching the Yankee youngsters play and develop. Will they be better than Santana next year? Of course not. Will the Yankees be the unbeatable uber team? Nope. But they will be competitive and they will be fun and likeable, and that's pretty good for me.

[IronHorse (yf)]

Huge news out of Nashville: apparently it wasn't NY's refusal to part with Kennedy that screwed up the deal. The Twins were holding out for the Yankees to chip in 4 of A-Rod's 6 psychotherapists - Cashman would only give up three. Oh well...can't blame him for that.

(Speaking of which, what the hell is taking so long on the A-Rod deal? Yesterday ESPN reported that the deal was done but that he would be taking physicals, allowing a final signing in 1-2 weeks. How many physicals is he taking?!?!)

Sorry - I needed a break from Johan...

[AndrewYF]

YF's would be unhappy, because it's absolutely stupid to give up 2/5 of your rotation for one guy. Especially when the next best offer is about 3 miles below that one.

[TJ]

Where Does the Money Go?

Contrary to popular opinion, the tax revenues do not go to the "poor" clubs. In fact, they don't go to any club at all.

Half of the money will go to player benefits (i.e. pension fund).

One quarter of the money will go to the "industry-growth fund."

One quarter of the money will be allocated for developing baseball players in countries with no organized baseball at the high school level.

[yankeemonkey]

IH - they're waiting till after the Rule V draft, I think.

[Paul SF]

This is the same exact deal the Sox offered weeks ago.

Yes, but weeks ago, the Yankees didn't make arbitrary deadlines, possibly tamper with the player in question and hold out over the identity of the third player in the deal.

If anyone took the Yankees out of this, it's the Yankees. Right now, the only players the Yanks have agreed to include are Hughes, Cabrera and unnamed prospects who are on a level somewhere below the prospects offered by the Sox.

[yankeemonkey]

Devine: I would be unhappy. I don't want this trade, period.

[Paul SF]

Anyway, this is all academic. I agree with Devine: the Yanks haven't made their final offer, and whatever it is, I think they'll make it something the Twins can't refuse.

[Nick-YF]

in a Marv Albert voice:

Paul with the reverse jinx...Yes...and it counts.

[Carlos (YF)]

TJ,

You are right, the luxury tax is not a part of luxury sharing. I don't know where the luxury tax money goes, but revenue sharing is based on locally generated revenue. Every team puts 34% of their locally generated revenue into the pot, but the Yankees dwarf the amount given by other teams. In 2003, The Yankees, with revenues estimated at $270 million for 2003, paid $48.3 million. They gave $33.2 million in 2002.

Thats one Santana right there. :)

[SF]

I may be in the minority on this but...While winning championships is nice, it's not the only thing, not everything, despite what Derek Jeter might tell you. I enjoy watching baseball for 162+19 days a year, not just the 19 in October. And as such, I will enjoy watching the Yankee youngsters play and develop. Will they be better than Santana next year? Of course not. Will the Yankees be the unbeatable uber team? Nope. But they will be competitive and they will be fun and likeable, and that's pretty good for me.

This is really well said, YM. I have mixed feelings about this whole deal. Isn't this bad for the game, to some extent? What happened to the hope of springtime, of seeing uniforms with new names on the back? While part of me says "get Johan!" the other part of me says "wow, how fun would it be to see all these kids grow up in a Sox uniform". It's not like the Sox are the bottom of the heap even without Santana. It's a really tough call as a romantic fan, for me. Such is the way the game works now, I guess.

[SF]

They gave $33.2 million in 2002.

Thats one Santana right there. :)

And a half a Giambi!

[Nick-YF]

I'm not going to argue against the sentimental value of seeing a young player develop. And as a Yanks fan who rooted for some pretty flawed, but entertaining and not totally awful, teams during the 80's and early 90's, it's not all about winning world series for me. That said, a rotation with Santana and Beckett at the top is making me sick.

[IronHorse (yf)]

"whatever it is, I think they'll make it something the Twins can't refuse."

I like that thinking...maybe the final offer will come wrapped in newspaper with a dead fish and the message - "Tyler Clippard sleeps with the fishes..."

The next morning, Carl Pohlad will wake up next to his favorite pet's decapitated head in his bed. Signing ceremony set for that afternoon.

[Paul SF]

Updates.

Herald:

"The Red Sox and Twins will resume “serious negotiations’’ later this morning as they close in on a blockbuster deal that would bring ace Johan Santana to the Red Sox, according to a baseball source involved in the negotiations.

The package of players the Twins receive is still in flux and there are two packages under discussion, with still varying mixes of players in each. ...

Late Monday night, the Red Sox received a call from the Twins requesting the medical records of Lester. After reviewing the information, the Twins were satisfied that there were no red flags there that would block a deal, said the source.

'The Red Sox are legitimate, real players in this now,' said the source. 'The Twins like their players.'"

And Stark:

"After being told Kennedy wasn't available if Hughes was part of the deal, the Twins apparently proposed expanding the trade into a 4-for-1 swap, with players they considered to be lesser prospects than Kennedy. But the Yankees quickly rejected that pitch, too.

That last proposal included Hughes, Cabrera, pitcher Jeff Marquez and either pitcher Alan Horne or outfielder Austin Jackson."

So we know the Yanks wouldn't part with EITHER Horne OR Jackson, not just both in place of Kennedy, as had been rumored. Well, we know that's what Stark is reporting, anyway.

[Mike YF]

Thanks, Paul, for providing the definition of \"flamethrowing\".

Neither the Yankees or the Sox have offered anything different than they always have.

The real test for me: No one would be shocked if Hughes won a Cy Young one day. No one else being discussed is in that league - MVP or CY or otherwise.

Before all the drama from some Yankee fans - let\'s see this deal get done first and then the extension. Somehow I still doubt the Sox have the courage to pull this off. After all, THAT would be an \"uber-team\".

[Mike YF]

Sorry for the \"weird\" formatting. I\'m on the road today.

[yankeemonkey]

I can't find the Stark update, Paul...link, please?

[Mike YF]

As much, as I am against it, I wonder if the Yankees have considered something around Cano, like Cano + Melky and a second-tier pitching prospect. They can certainly afford the loss of offense, and if it means not giving up the top-tier pitching then they can make out really well. And as I have been convinced, Cano does look a bit like Soriano but with better defense. There is a chance he might not improve much more.

But certainly not Cano + Hughes, as some here have advocated.

[sam-YF]

That last proposal included Hughes, Cabrera, pitcher Jeff Marquez and either pitcher Alan Horne or outfielder Austin Jackson.

if the yankees really turned this down, i think they were just in this to bid up the price for the sox. This clearly didnt work.

[Paul SF]

I agree with the romanticism expressed by YM and SF, which is what makes the proposed deal such a winner for me as a Sox fan. We get to keep Ellsbury and Buchholz and watch them develop, for better or worse, while still acquiring Santana. Never mind Papelbon, Pedroia and Delcarmen.