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Sunday, November 04, 2007

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No offense, but I think I'll take a pass on that .300 OBP.

Adrian Beltre's career OBP .327

Wilson Betemit's OBP in his only full season (373 AB's) .326

Mike Lamb's career OBP .339 (with no seasons over 400 AB's)

I will take the defense over the slight OBP advantage some of the other candidates have. Plus getting rid of a aging CF/LF/DH has to count for something.

I don't suppose this would be a good time to remind that Brosius' time with the Yanks coincided with an in-his-prime Bernie patrolling CF and excellent production out of first base? Ergo, unless 1B can be improved considerably, Brosius v2.0 is probably not a great idea at this time?

Hmm, replace all-world offense with recently injured (back surgery, no less) player who has one above-average season (though an undeniably terrific glove) in the last five years?

Go for it!

If I'm the White Sox, and the Yankees are offering to pay for Johnny Damon to replace Joe Crede's offense, I think I'd jump at it. Even with his injuries last season, Damon had yet another year -- sixth straight -- (97 OPS+) that was better than Joe Crede's career average (92). Damon hasn't had an OPS+ under 92 since 2001. The one thing would be where to play Damon? He should be a 1B/DH, but the ChiSox already have Thome and Konerko at those spots. He could replace Podsednik's spotty production in left, I suppose.

Also, if these rumors are sparking so quickly, that would seem to indicate the Yankees believe they have little chance at signing Mike Lowell -- good news for the Sox, who stand to pay him a lot less if the Yanks are out of the bidding.

Crede's stats are odd. Normally, one would think that a lifetime .259 batting average that has some power would strike out a lot. But he doesn't. However, he also doesn't walk a lot which accounts for his poor OBP. In short, he's basically a free swinging contact hitter who makes a ton of outs.

I basically agree with Paul. This trade on its own would be bad for the Yanks. I'm not too excited about getting Crede, who is coming off of back surgery and is a mediocre bat. It's basically a salary dump. It might make sense to make if the Yanks are clearing salary and roster space for a run at Andruw Jones, Rowand or Humter.

Re: Lowell. I think any contract the Yanks sign Lowell to would be preposterously high and probably not very good. He's going to be good for a couple more years, but I worry about his age. That said, the Yanks should at least make a play at beng interested in him to boost the price and years on the Sox.

Guess what: the Yanks already have a Joe Crede clone under contract, one of their top picks from last year's draft, Texas's own Brad Suttle. MiLB.com's scouting report: "Suttle has a Joe Crede body type." Also, back problems!

Actually, looks like Suttle might be more of an on-base guy than a power guy. Ideally you'd like both at a corner infield position, but he's a developing story. Anyway, someone to keep in mind.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=suttle

I know Crede is not A-Rod, but I also know that the options are thin. The thing that scares me most about the other options (Lamb, Betemit) is that it's unknown what 400+ AB's will bring. Lamb has only played one season (2000) where he logged over 400 AB's. He hit 6 HR's, batted .278, OBP .328 (in Texas) and made 33 errors at 3B. Crede gives you very good defense and the possibility of 20+ HR's. I am biased though, I really like the way Crede plays the game, it goes deeper then numbers.

Lowell is a great player, but the length of the contract scares me. Miguel Cabrera's price is too high.

Miguel Cabrera might be more valuable than Albert Pujols. Certainly, he's in the discussion of the most valuable young offensive player going. As much as I want the Yanks to keep Hughes, I'd understand them trading him for Cabrera.

Lamb/Betemit, as a platoon, probably is stronger offensively than Crede. Crede's value is defensive, which I don't think those two approach.

There's a lot of talk all of a sudden about Cabrera's work ethic/attitude/shape. Any validity to this, I wonder, and does that change the way he's viewed as the next potential A-Rod (in terms of elite production from a young player sustained over a decade-plus)?

I don't see a Lamb/Betemit platoon working. Reason being Lamb bats lefty and Betemit's best side is left. If the platoon means Betemit plays against lefties, Lamb against righties, I want no part of that.

Betemit (L) Vs. RHP .227 13 HR .341 OBP
Betemit (R) Vs. LHP .239 1 HR .300 OBP

Cabrera is very very good, no doubting that. The biggest problem from what everyone has to say about him is his work ethic and physical condition. Long term he is not a 3Bman, not at his current growth rate. As for trading Hughes or Chamberlain, unless we are getting back a Josh Beckett type shut down starter, I would not do the deal. We need a dominant starter a heck of a lot more then an all-star 3Bman.

im gonna take a pass on trading hughes for cabrera. The yankees need to make up for A-Rod's loss by strengthening the team's pitching. The loss of Hughes is much bigger than the gain Cabrera could bring, esp. with the pitching available on the market this winter.

Also, in reference to a point that Paul made earlier. I dont think that the presence of a rumor involving a 3b tells us anything at all about the yankees' chances or interest in getting Lowell. For starters, its a rumor and thats all, we have no idea of its validity. Even if it was valid, it could be a back up plan, etc.

John, you're rigth about Lamb, For some reason I thought he was a righty bat. That said, what about a Betemit/Ensberg platoon?

I would laugh so friggin' hard if the Yankees traded Damon for any reason.

Starting pitching is infinitely harder to locate than anything/everything else. And the best pitching team always wins in October.

Given this I too can not see trading either Hughes or Chamberlain for a position player.

Trading a strong pitching prospect, when you have several of them, is fine, and the Yankees are in positio to do so even after they slot Hughes, Chamberlain, and possibly Kennedy into the rotation in '08, but I wouldn't touch the top two guys for a position player.

Would you trade Hughes or Joba for Pujols?

Also, in reference to a point that Paul made earlier. I dont think that the presence of a rumor involving a 3b tells us anything at all about the yankees' chances or interest in getting Lowell.

I agree completely with Sam. Just because the Yanks may be toying around with trading Damon for Crede doesn't mean they're pursuing Lowell any less--it just means they are entertaining multiple options. Which, obviously, is a good idea in a baseball market where anything is certain.

Oh, and there's no way the Yankees trade Hughes (and more) for Cabrera. They've gotten dozens of trade offers for Hughes in the last two years, and have waiting on him too long to give up now.

Well, I made that comment thinking the rumors were a little more solid than just the NY Daily News columnist throwing speculation out there -- which is about all I've been able to find. In which case, I agree, you can't really determine anything by the presence of a rumor, particularly not a media-created one (as opposed to one with some kind of team sourcing).

Though the word is Kenny Williams wants to trade quickly. So if Crede is to be traded to NYY, it would probably happen sooner rather than later, which also would benefit the Sox.

Santana!

As someone who has watched Crede play for most of his time here in the Sox, I think he's a great third baseman. He gets hits in tight spots, plays great third base, is very consistent. You always get exactly the same thing from him, a type of stability that is always valuable.

To repeat: he's not a great bat and the back problems may be the start of something bad, but he was very durable before and might as well continue. Cabrera is obviously the bigger bat and the bigger upside, but a much riskier move considering his "variable interest level" and his high price tag (considering what the Yankees would lose.)

In that sense, Crede would be the safe choice. If you decide that Damon will have a diminished role in the Abreu, Melky, Matsui outfield, that Giambi is going to take the DH role, and Mient is taking the 1B role, if you are happy with that alignment, then isn't Damon dispensable? And if you think so, and you can trade his contract for a steady, cheap and decent 3B, doesn't that kill two birds with one stone?

Not every move need be a blockbuster, but it can create a stability (and financial flexibility) that helps in the long run.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/crede-for-damon.html

Here is where I found out about the trade.

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