Find Your Center

Melky Cabrera has been lauded with many compliments, from his teammates and from fans, regarding the play that he brings to the field.  Compliments are usually difficult or impossible to quantify, but I have to admit that for some time he has been arguably my favorite Yankee to watch.  Sometimes, someone will come along and rattle one's opinion, and speaking for myself, I may dismiss an assertion that isn't in line with my opinion as out-of-hand without looking at the statement rationally.

"I like Melky Cabrera for what he is. I think he's a good fourth outfielder, a very good fifth outfielder. I don't see him as an everyday player." - Steve Phillips

Most YFs know this quote, and know that it is weeks old, issued by Phillips right around the time of the non-waiver deadline.  He has already been beaten up pretty well by many sources.  But this post is not about piling on Phillips, who was opining on whether Cabrera should have stood in the way of the Yankees making a move to land Gagne, whom this post is not about either, so please keep that in mind if you choose to comment.

This post is about the fact that I wanted to take a look around the leagues at the center fielders that are getting most of the innings and see how much this (completely healthy, non-creepy) infatuation that I've had with Melky for the last 15 months or so lines up with actual performance in comparison to his peers.  It really came to a head last night when he made the great catch in the second, potentially saved the game with the laser throw to home in the ninth (and backed up the overthrow to second!), and scored the winning run.  Just GREAT stuff to watch as a baseball fan, let alone a Yankees fan.  There's a bunch of numbers that follow, and perhaps not much insight.  I put them together to scratch an itch.  Suffice it to say that if the Yankees choose to start their "good fourth...very good fifth outfielder" in center for the next eight or ten years, I think I might be happy with that.

Here are the major league center fielders with more than 400 innings at the position for 2007, up to date within the last game or two.  The offensive statistics columns displayed are inclusive of all positions played this season; innings and the defensive metrics are for play at CF only.

Player	Age	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Inn	A	RF/9 (2.74)	Rate	RAA	RZR	OOZ
Sizemore	24	.275	.377	.454	122	1031	1	2.66	94	-7	.896	37
Pierre	29	.283	.320	.337	71	1026	1	2.39	92	-9	.900	47
DeJesus	27	.277	.363	.400	96	1014	4	2.80	92	-8	.920	36
Cameron	34	.251	.323	.435	103	1011	4	2.45	91	-10	.889	39
Jones, A	30	.214	.309	.414	90	1001	2	2.81	99	-1	.947	61
Wells	28	.260	.314	.435	93	988	2	2.40	100	1	.890	26
Rowand	29	.314	.385	.527	134	975	11	2.69	106	7	.845	56
Suzuki	33	.346	.396	.430	125	960	8	3.00	111	12	.898	73
Hunter	31	.290	.333	.534	127	955	4	2.70	98	-2	.884	39
Granderson	26	.296	.353	.549	135	944	9	3.19	113	14	.928	68
Crisp	27	.273	.338	.395	92	914	5	3.07	117	17	.910	44
Matthews	32	.275	.338	.448	110	901	6	2.91	104	4	.866	59
Young, C	23	.229	.283	.425	78	898	3	2.53	93	-8	.879	53
Patterson	27	.270	.312	.388	85	894	6	2.43	96	-4	.907	31
Beltran	30	.258	.336	.480	116	855	2	2.94	109	8	.927	46
Hall	27	.261	.325	.424	95	781	5	2.74	88	-11	.848	43
Cabrera	22	.302	.351	.452	115	705	10	3.08	113	10	.900	25
Lofton	40	.296	.369	.416	105	669	5	2.55	91	-7	.849	34
Taveras	25	.310	.359	.374	88	662	7	2.71	109	6	.872	36
Pence	24	.330	.355	.564	134	645	4	2.77	99	-1	.874	35
Roberts	35	.265	.332	.362	83	609	5	2.66	99	-1	.844	30
Edmonds	37	.244	.320	.382	85	596	5	2.59	100	0	.832	33
Amezaga	29	.269	.323	.371	86	585	8	3.09	105	3	.930	33
Duffy	27	.239	.313	.357	76	534	3	2.95	107	4	.902	24
Logan	27	.275	.327	.358	82	482	0	2.86	93	-4	.904	21
Kotsay	31	.217	.283	.300	57	463	5	2.81	104	2	.904	17
Freel	31	.245	.308	.347	66	444	3	2.82	98	-1	.824	33

(some data may be hidden based on your brower's default font size.. rightmost column should be OOZ)

Caveats: There's plenty of depth in statistics left out of this set of numbers that would help get a better picture of where Melky falls in amongst the rest of the 8s in the leagues, and I am not that adept a statistician to begin with.  Also, I didn't weigh the totality of Phillips' assertion by considering 7s and 9s, but that's not really relevant.  Acknowledging those shortcomings, by my eyes Cabrera rates by each measure a starter right now.  If he doesn't I would like to know why.  Is he the best center in the game?  Of course not.

I considered showing his splits offensively at CF (edit: since becoming the starter) which are truly impressive, but got lazy when I realized I would have to do it for everyone else too, so that drill-down is left out.  Also, I left out the personal interest factor of what he brings to the field and the plate in the way of intangibles, but it seems I didn't even need to bring that up considering the facts, and since the "good feeling factor" is what I was trying to step away from to begin with.

I've posted the XLS file if you want to sort the columns differently: Download cfcomp.xls

Thanks to baseball-reference.com, baseballprospectus.com and thehardballtimes.com for the data.

Comments

[Westboro - YF]

I love Melky too but you must have alot of free time ;)

No Really, Good Post.

[Brad]

I like Melky as well, but if I'm being honest with myself, I think he falls somewhere in the middle of what he's showing now, and what most thought he was to begin with.
It's true that he has outdone himself in proving everyone wrong that he couldn't hold the position, but he's definitely not the player he has been over the past three weeks either.
He's definitely better than Damon, and he has nothing short of a cannon attached to his shoulder (you only had to watch last night to see that), and I can understand why Yankee fans like the kid. He can go get it, and when he does, he can get it back in quickly. Plus, he's cheap, which is a lot more than you can say about the other outfielders on that team.
I feel about Ellsbury this way. I go to Pawtucket games, and I know that Ellsbury can go get it as well as anyone on the Red Sox right now, including Crisp, who's range is awesome.
It's a farm thing. Everyone loves players that started with the organization, and Melky follows suit nicely.
He's playing above his head right now, and will definitely come back to earth at some point with the bat, but for now, he's performing exactly how everyone said that he couldn't. Good for him since I'm sure that he's worked very hard at shutting everyone's mouth.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Bravo AG, was actually going to right the same piece...Wouldn't have been 1/2 as good as this. Great job.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Write...Duh...

[Amsterdam YF]

"he's definitely not the player he has been over the past three weeks"

Melky in July: .368/.410/.528
Melky in August: .377/.382/.679 (!?!?!)

So, it's been longer than three weeks, but I understand your point; he will not maintain this pace (and thus go on to be one of the great CFs of all time).

Looking at Melky's June though (.298/.364/.447), or his overall line on the year, I'm much more confident that he can match (and perhaps exceed) that over a full season going foward than I was at the beginning of May. I'll certainly take an .800+ OPS from my pre-arb CF. I mean, someone has to bat ninth in that lineup.

On a more subjective note, he's fun to watch not just for his youth, but for his personality. After that throw last night he had this stupid grin on his face, and seeing that kind of excitement can't help but make the game more enjoyable.

[nettles-yf]

Well, I for one, feel better about Melk now! Thanks for the analysis, AG.

[yankeeboy]

What i find funny about this is that Steve Philips is saying that Melky Cabrera won't make it as an everyday player, especially when he's still only 22!

ONLY 22! I mean seriously...

And i dont know why, but i have a feeling steve philips seems to hate the yankees or something.
Because i just saw today that Steve Philips beileves that the yankees won't make the playoffs.
-.-

[attackgerbil]

Edit: Removed reference to Chamberlain in article. Don't know how that got in there and I don't think Phillips talked about him while talking about Cabrera.. sorry.

[IronHorse-YF]

Love Melky. Period. Loved him last year, love him more this year. As we know all too well in NY, it is not always about acquiring the best guy (statistically) at a position - it's about having the right guy for your team - which means how he adds to and complements others on the team, how he fits into the style of play you want, etc.

On those fronts, from 2000 until today, our team has needed (and lacked) youth - which also means youthful energy and enthusiasm, strong arms in the outfield (hard to admit how I felt when older-Bernie and Damon were patrolling out there together given my undying respect for Bernie), ability to bunt and go from 1st to 3rd and all other small-ball elements at the plate and on the base pads, and strong defense.

ALL of these elements were on the decline for us for years before Melky came up last year.

He also has showed a knack for getting big hits and not folding under pressure. I love Cano too but am still uncomfortable with little things like his relatively bad BA with the bases loaded and free-swinging in very big situations. In his short time here, Melky has often been in the middle of high-pressure rallies...this performing-under-pressure is not something new for the Yankees, but is always the big worry when newbies are brought up and it is not one with him - at least not for me.

So in addition to the stats (and thanks very much for those), these are the many ways in which I love Melky...

[Woosta YF]

Fantastic!

The only thing missing is AGES! And Melky is finishing his year 22 season!!!

[Nick -YF]

Thanks for doing the work on this one, AG. Great post!

I think Woosta is right on to point out the fact that Melky is only 22 (or is it 23 at this point?). He's made an unbelievable adjustment to the game, and his skill set just seems to be getting stronger. Is he a star center fielde yet? No. But he's developing into one.

[DAW]

Great work, gerb. You're picking up the slack quite well while our sf friends are AWOL :)

Steve Phillips traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano - 'Nuff said about what his opinion is worth...

(woops! sorry ag - I just couldn't control myself)

"He's playing above his head right now"

I don't know that this is true - granted he's on a hot streak, and that won't last, but his numbers from his rookie year in '06 were good : .280 AVG .360 OBP .391 SLG
Many on this site were too quick to write him off after a slow start, which was probably due to the fact that he wasn't allowed to play winter ball.

[Woosta YF]

He just turned 23. So it's counted as his year 22 season - see:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cabreme01.shtml

And you bet Nick. Given that power is the last tool to develop, I wouldn't be surprised to see him .OPSing .900 in two years and .1000 at his peak. The best part is even if he loses a step or two, they can just shift him over to RF.

[attackgerbil]

> The only thing missing is AGES!

Ages column added. You might need to shrink your browser's font size to see all the data, probably: ctrl-minus

[QuoSF]

Excellent post, AG. What's comforting to me as an SF (and a baseball fan in general) about all this is that with guys like Ichiro, Melky, Crisp, and Granderson in CF, defensively, the statistics tell you the exact same thing your eyes do.

Woosta: This is barely worth responding too, but 1.000 OPS at his peak? This season, there are 2 AL hitters in that range, Maggs and A-Rod. 5 last season: Thome, Papi, Manny, Pronk, and an out-of-his-mind Dye. 3 in 2005: Papi, Pronk, A-Rod. 1 in 2004: Manny. 2 in 2003: Delgado, Manny.

I could go further, but are you REALLY trying to convince anyone that Melky is going to be a 1.000 OPS guy at some point? He's a good player, and is currently proving a lot of his doubters (I for one, thought his ceiling would be as an average CF offensively) wrong. Yes, it's been over 1.000 the last month or so, but his BABIP has been .360 over that timespan. He's going to come down from this, may (probably) not approach it again, but will still be a much better player than I've thought he deserved credit for.

But a 1.000 OPS is...wow. Yikes.

In unrelated news, when Jacoby Ellsbury becomes a regular, he will take home from 2nd base on a wild pitch every other game.

[QuoSF]

Excellent post, AG. What's comforting to me as an SF (and a baseball fan in general) about all this is that with guys like Ichiro, Melky, Crisp, and Granderson in CF, defensively, the statistics tell you the exact same thing your eyes do.

Woosta: This is barely worth responding too, but 1.000 OPS at his peak? This season, there are 2 AL hitters in that range, Maggs and A-Rod. 5 last season: Thome, Papi, Manny, Pronk, and an out-of-his-mind Dye. 3 in 2005: Papi, Pronk, A-Rod. 1 in 2004: Manny. 2 in 2003: Delgado, Manny.

I could go further, but are you REALLY trying to convince anyone that Melky is going to be a 1.000 OPS guy at some point? He's a good player, and is currently proving a lot of his doubters (I for one, thought his ceiling would be as an average CF offensively) wrong. Yes, it's been over 1.000 the last month or so, but his BABIP has been .360 over that timespan. He's going to come down from this, may (probably) not approach it again, but will still be a much better player than I've thought he deserved credit for.

But a 1.000 OPS is...wow. Yikes.

In unrelated news, when Jacoby Ellsbury becomes a regular, he will take home from 2nd base on a wild pitch every other game.

[QuoSF]

Dangable typekey. Apologies for the dual-post. Only meant to rain on Woosta's overly premature parade once.

No one is taking home from second off of a while pitch...unless of course Wakefield is pitching.

[Devine]

Ellsbury did that this year.

[yf2k]

Melky is proving that he is not only more than a 4th outfielder, he might turn out to be an all-star level cf someday, given his age and upside.

[Woosta YF]

Excellent! So, among young CF's:

Granderson > Melky = Pence > Sizemore?

I'll take that!

(And Quo, that you didn't criticize a .900 OPS says everything. And, did anyone mention he's in his year 22 season?)

[Woosta YF]

One more Quo - I didn't just pull that 1.000 number out of some surreal future. I simply look at the comp between Melky and Bernie, and realize that age 22, Melky is ahead.

Bernie at his peak?

.997 OPS at age 29 in 1998.

I'll happily take the next seven years to see if Melky tops that.

[QuoSF]

I'm just saying, do you not realize you're jumping the gun in a serious way?

[Brad]

Granderson > Melky = Pence > Sizemore

Now, we're bordering on rediculous. Nope, border crossed. Sizemore tops this list by heads and tails over the other three. It's like me suggesting Lester is better than Oswalt based on last nights box score.

[Brad]

Stats the past two monts be damned, there isn't a GM out there that doesn't take Sizemore over every CF in the AL right now, much less the other three in your equation. He is the posterchild for awesome young outfielders. In fact, if I had the choice, I take him over every single OF, no matter the position, in all of baseball.

[attackgerbil]

It's funny that I just realized, right now, that Melky is the youngest starting 8 in the game.

[QuoSF]

As a GM, I would consider Granderson as well. Head and shoulders above Sizemore defensively, and then it's a question of whether you prefer Granderson's better power over Sizemore's superior OBP/speed.