A Big Trade in Boston. Another One Coming?

Well, the Celtics must have gotten the memo meant for Theo Epstein that the trading deadline is today. There's no way the Sox will be making a deal containing a player the magnitude of Kevin Garnett, but apparently Jermaine Dye might have to do.

From Edes this morning:

Just touched base with one of my sources, and he told me the Red Sox are still waiting to hear back from the White Sox on Jermaine Dye. The ball is in the White Sox court, he said. Of course, it's an hour earlier in Chicago.

Edes reported in the print edition that the Sox had made a counteroffer that Kenny Williams was taking "under serious consideration." He also said one Major League source told him the Sox were close to landing Eric Gagne, but he seems skeptical.

The Yankees are also pursuing Gagne, but their problem seems to be the same as the Sox', namely:

The Sox are still unwilling to part with the Big Three, and the Yankees also are unwilling to part with any of their Big 500 -- as we've learned, all Yankee prospects are better than any Sox prospects and, frankly, we're ashamed to have even suggested that the Sox might have some pretty good minor leaguers in their own right.

Consider this your Deadline Day thread for anything that may (or may not) transpire.

Comments

[Nick-YF]

correction, Paul, it's the Yanks' Big 557.

[Paul SF]

Ah, thanks, Nick. ;-)

[LocklandSF]

Hahaha! Good one Paul.

[Paul SF]

The Boston Herald:

"One GM said that, from what he’d been told, the Sox had the best offers on the table for both Dye and Gagne. It remained in question, however, if either player wanted to join the Red Sox because of how they would be deployed."

[John - YF (Trisk)]

According to MLB Trade Rumors Boston is in the lead for Gagne now...Uggh. Apparently the Yankees won't budge on Kennedy, Hughes, Joba (Can't blame them). But what I don't understand is how David Murphy and Kason Gabbard trumps Gardner and one of the following Clippard, DeSalvo, Marquez, Proctor or Chase Wright, Chase Wright, Chase Wright and Chase Wright.

Here comes 300 posts on David Murphy Vs. Gardner!

[Paul SF]

lol, Trisk. I would be much more willing to concede a Murphy/Gardner comparison.

Edes says in his blog post that he hears the Rangers are now thinking about simply re-signing Gagne. This strikes me as posturing from the Rangers camp though. Trying to shore up their position in the game of chicken. Or maybe I'm just thinking wishfully...

[Nick-YF]

"One GM said that, from what he’d been told, the Sox had the best offers on the table for both Dye and Gagne. It remained in question, however, if either player wanted to join the Red Sox because of how they would be deployed."

that one GM?

Theo Epstein

Trade rumors are so hilarious because they're so much gamesmanship going on. I'm not serious about the one GM being Theo, but, at the same time, it's entirely possible. These beat reporters are hard workers and deserve credit for what they do, but often they're pawns in a negotiating game.

[Nick-YF]

they're= there is

I'm illiterate

[Paul SF]

So true. But it's still so fun.

[Nick-YF]

Paul, I like it too:) But I have to say sometimes I feel like I'm watching a soap opera with every refresh click I make on mlbtraderumors.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

I used to be OBSESSED with prospects, but I have since come around. I think there are a few select guys you don't move...But look at guys like Brandon Phillips, can't miss prospect that missed and missed and missed before latching on with the Reds and is now a star. Jeff Francis? Andy Marte? Dallas McPherson? Carlos Quentin? Milledge? Even to a certain extent Francouer, who really is an average player.

Point being, there needs to be a fine line between playing for now and building for the future.

[Woosta YF]

Uh...let's see.....largest possible sample is their career numbers:

Jacoby Ellsbury (23 years old): .306 .387 .423 (911 AB) 99 SB 26 CS
Brett Gardner (23 years old): .291 .388 .378 (985 AB) 98 SB 19 CS
David Murphy: (25 years old): .273 .343 .409 (1887 AB) 42 SB 20 CS

Uh...........no.

Good to see YF's sticking up for each other, and their team, on a rivalry site.

[Paul SF]

lol, Woosta is funny. Makes me laugh.

[LocklandSF]

Christ, here we go again.

[Nick-YF]

Woosta YF, I'm sorry I don't find this argument compelling really. Ellsbury is a bigger prospect than Gardner even if the stats don't bear it out, just as Hanley Ramirez was a bigger prospect than Dustin Pedroia, despite Hanley not putting up good numbers in the minors. I imagine that the scouts see something in Ellsbury they don't see in Gardner. Oh well. No big deal. I don't see what Paul originally wrote as being controversial. Ellsbury is part of the Sox's Big 3. He didn't necessarily write that they were the equal to the Yanks' Big 3, although it's possible he believes that.

[Woosta YF]

But what are stats? Anyways?

They're just numbers. And numbers don't even exist in the "real" world. There's no number 2 that you can point to.

It's much better to rely on "experts". You can at least talk to them and ask them questions. I don't see Pi standing up for itself on ESPN or C-SPAN.

[Brad]

yeah, he is.

[attackgerbil]

*ag channels/apologizes to The Answer*

"We're not talking about the game. We're talking about prospects."

[Paul SF]

So the Daily News seems to just be throwing names out when it says the Sox could land Gagne for Murphy and Gabbard.

I can't imagine the Sox actually get him for that little. If they do, Jon Daniels wiped away much of the respect I gained for him in the Teixeira trade.

[Woosta YF]

Sorry, Nick, but Ellsbury at 23, has yet to prove himself at AAA. He's as much a "tremendous" prospect as Eric Duncan (or Brett Gardner).

And if all you go on is what the "experts" say, they'll day the same thing this winter.

Meanwhile, the original thing I was reacting to was the whole notion of equating the two Big 3's and knowing that included Ellsbury.

Now if Sox fans were willing to drop the fiction of Ellsbury, and add in Masterson, there'd at least be some compelling comps...

[Nick-YF]

Look, I'm not a prospect guru, so I basically have to take the experts' word...sometimes. As we know in any field, the experts are sometimes wrong, often dramatically so: Ruben Rivera. We get that. I think everyone understands that. And, as you point out, stats are useful tools by which we can measure a player's talent and worth. But they are not the end-all, especially when it comes to evaluating prospects. Woosta, you do agree with that idea? No?

Meanwhile, Paul basically wrote a very non-controversial thing, something that many people who spend all their time thinking about such things agree with. Ellsbury is a top prospect. Many see him as another Johnny Damon. Why is this controversial to imply in a post?

[YF]

i hate the idea of giving up anything of significant value for gagne-who you get for less than .5 a season and in a middle-relief role. texas, with the atlanta trade, demonstrated that they're looking for premium talent. they can take a walk. yanks are better off dealing proctor or farnsy and seeing what they can get from joba.

[Nick-YF]

YF, it's more than just two months of Gagne. It could be the difference between making the post-season (how many more 1 run games are going to lose with our stinking middle-relief!) or not. Also, Gagne, I believe, will get you draft picks when he walks away. The way the Yanks have been drafting since Damon Oppenheim took over makes this an attractive possibility.

[Woosta YF]

The point is: Ellsbury's AA numbers are an mirage when looked at in isolation. That's the trap the "experts" fell into and Paul still to this day. And that's the fiction that's still carried around.

Eric Duncan looked like a top prospect (Even as he's still younger than Ellsbury and Gardner) and those rankings apart from the numbers are just a means to promote BaseballAmerica's paid services.

My further problem is: Hype begets hype begets hype. For Ellsbury, that snowball has traveled downhill long enough.

Bottomline: I've got no problem about a Big 3 in the Boston organization - but it includes: Lester, Buchholz, and Masterson.

[Paul SF]

Trisk, this might answer your no-trade question re: gagne, from a poster on SOSH. It makes a lot of sense to me:

"I suspect Gagne looked at the Sox as a team that really wanted him, that had a hole, and would be a very likely suitor at the trade deadline if Texas was out of it, and since Boston is right there with the Yanks as the financial superpowers, he knew if they called that they would be willing to make it financially worth his while. On the other hand I suspect he never figured the Yankees and Mets as realistic bidders"

Yankees and Mets oc ourse have Rivera and Wagner, and did so when he signed. The Sox had Papelbon in the rotation with concerns about his arm and Pineiro as a likely closer. Boras probably told Gagne he could make a lot more money at the deadline if he added the Sox to his no-trade list because the Sox would have to financially reward him for waiving the clause.

[Paul SF]

Also, YF, if Gagne helps get you into the playoffs, he is also helping get you far into the playoffs. Either team would see huge benefits from a Gagne-Rivera tandem or an Okajima-Gagne-Papelbon troika.

[Woosta YF]

As for Gagne I ask two simple questions:

1) Is he a difference maker as far as the Yanks winning a ring?
2) Can he play 1B and give power from the rightside?

My answer to both questions is: No!

He's going to pitch maybe 30 innings, and only half will be high leverage.

And no one remembers who "makes" the playoffs.

[Scott SF]

You know, I'm still finding it amusing that, potentially, the biggest splash at the trade deadline didn't even come in baseball. The Celtics - The CELTICS!! - trumped the Sox in Boston (and national) news today.

There's still 5 hours left, but something tells there won't be a trade of that caliber happening in baseball. At least not here in the northeast.

[Brad]

The point is: Ellsbury's AA numbers are an mirage when looked at in isolation.

Why would anyone look at a player's stats in isolation? Looking at anything in isolation ignores the bigger picture?
Should we consider any prospect's stats from any single level of advancement a moot point if they aren't immediately replicated on the next level of play? Is there no acclimation period for a player? We're talking about a very small sample size for all of these guys. Yes, their AAA numbers are not as stellar as those from the previous level, but how often does that happen immediately?
If Ellsbury wasn't as good as everyone says he is, with the exception of Woosta, why is he the person that is rumored to be on all the wish lists for other teams? I can't imagine it's because they're thinking his stats are a "mirage".
They're all good players. Period. They're all playing on the same level, and putting up good numbers doing so. But, since I'm not an "expert", as it's being written here, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Ellsbury is a creation of the Red Sox hype factory, and his AA numbers mean nothing. But, then again, he looked pretty good to me in his short stint in the big leagues. He made some good plays in the OF, and his baserunning was stellar. I don't know what else someone could ask for, really.
Maybe from now on, I'll just ignore the stats, and you know, my eyeballs.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Agreed that the Yankees need power from the Right Side, as well as a 1Bman but that's not out there. Who Morgan Ensberg? Troy Glaus? Mark Loretta? (Zero Power) So you make a move to fill the next biggest hole and that's a setup man.

[Brad]

Also, Gagne (and Boras) are probably thinking that nothing in the world would be better for him than to land somewhere where he would be on a playoff roster, pitching in the playoffs, and doing well at it (as he is now), in a contract year.
Gagne knows that being in the spotlight in the next few months is only going to bring him the money. Texas is not going to supply that for him.

[Brad]

Troy Glaus in that lineup is just freaking rediculous.

[Brad]

Scott, I agree. I was so surprised when I woke up today. I'm stoked. The last time I was excited about the Celtics, well, you know when it was.

[Paul SF]

If the Sox don't get Gagne, they may go after Cordero, according to Yahoo! Sports.

[Paul SF]

Yeah, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett on the same court. That's an impressive turnaround.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Brad don't get too excited. Ray Allen, KG and The Truth with nobody else left on the team...Better work some FA magic!

Brad -

Paul, SF, and d1 were exclusively and consistently looking at those AA numbers to justify Ellsbury's hype. In the context of the rest of his professional career, he looks fine but not as a "tremendous" prospect.

And he still might be a regular major league player (like Gardner). But the evidence for that is still very much in doubt (like Gardner). Meanwhile, two things on the reports:

1) They always mention Ellsbury as being off-limits. What better way to hype something than to suggest it's unattainable?
2) Some reports have Gardner being talked about in the Gagne deal. So what? This time of year any prospect worth anything is being talked about.

[attackgerbil]

> 1) Is he a difference maker as far as the Yanks winning a ring?

Probably not _the_ difference maker, but look at the runs allowed by pitching per inning:

1) 45
2) 56
3) 56
4) 58
5) 62
6) 40
7) 81
8) 54
9) 24

[John - YF (Trisk)]

I am on Rumor overload...

Yankees are kicking the tires on Damaso Marte, but are unwilling to give up someone named Alan Horne???

[Paul SF]

Now why would we bring up AA? I mean, it's not like it's the highest level at which both players have amassed significant playing time or anything.

I'm still iffy on Dye, but I'm all on board with a Gagne trade for the Sox.

[Woosta YF]

Rh side:

How about Dye? The Yanks need him more than the Sox do.

Glaus works too.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Can we please put an end to this ridiculous argument...uggh. Jacoby by all accounts is the better player, no shame in that. I am sure Gardner will be a fine player as well and if he winds up being the better player LT, then it wouldn't be the 1st time scouts are wrong.

As for Dye, no thanks. Only way I do that trade is if they take Abreu and Damon. LOL.

Hey Paul,

In case you haven't noticed, Ellsbury has also accumulated significant time in AAA - indeed almost as much as AA. And he's sucked there.

Trisk -

Horne was hurt coming out of college and is performing well at AA in his first professional season. For Damsio Marte - no way.

[attackgerbil]

> they take Abreu and Damon

Talk about unreasonable demands.

[Brad]

I'm big on Dye. I'm never against getting someone like that, in his contract year, and who's pretty hot right now. The Sox can afford to take that chance as long as the price isn't crazy, which it doesn't seem to be.
Dye would really allow for the Sox to play with the OF more than they can right now. He's also a good bat off the bench, and could allow Manny to DH a lot more down the stretch with Ortiz resting.
I'm not against it for sure, but I'd be happier to know that they're shopping a very affordable Coco Crisp for bullpen help and plan on putting Drew in Center and Dye in right.
That, I love.

[sam YF]

Still a bit confused about the sox interest in Gagne.
Do they really need him? Seems to me that the Sox pen is damn good as is and may not need much help esp at a high cost.
Is his value to the team worth some good prospects? I assume they will have to give up something pretty good judging from the reported yankees offers that would need to be trumped. Finally, what about his no trade? Would the rangers set up and agree to a deal that could be blocked leaving them with nothing. Any news on his willingness to come to boston?

[Woosta YF]

Good stats from AG. But with how many times the Yanks will face LHP pitching this year, a RH bat could make as much of, if not more of, a difference as a one-inning guy.

And if they see the Tigers (Rogers, Robertson, Miller) in the post-season, it could be ugly. Of course, that means getting there and beating not only the Tigers, but also the Sox (Lester, Gabbard) and Cleveland (Sabathia, Lee) in regular season series. You know, after Brian Burres shut down a "hot-hitting" team.

[Scott SF]

"Scott, I agree. I was so surprised when I woke up today. I'm stoked. The last time I was excited about the Celtics, well, you know when it was."

When the Sox and Mets were playing in the World Series, the Pats were in their first Super Bowl, the C's hanging up #16, and the Bruins throwing their weight around with Bourque and newly-acquired Neely?

After 21 years, I might be able to get excited over all four Boston teams at once!

[Brad]

I agree, Sam. I want no part of Gagne right now. I don't think the Sox need the help there, especially with the rise of Delcarmen for now, and I don't like the idea of giving anything up for what appears to be a significant drop in his fastball velocity, and well, another Boras holdup.
The Red Sox bullpen, that house of cards that they are, are performing as well as anyone could have hoped.
Adding Gagne seems to be like a piece not needed, or trying to improve on something that isn't broken.

[Paul SF]

Sam,

The Sox have concerns with Papelbon's arm as we get deeper into the season; Okajima's heavy use, the heaviest of his career; Timlin's sore shoulder; and Delcarmen's ienxperience as we get into September and October.

Gagne would be Papelbon insurance, a load-bearer for Okajima, and otherwise a dominant arm for the last month and playoffs that could seal the deal.

As for his no-trade, the reports indicate the Sox might be willing to guarantee his games-finished incentives, which I imagine would take care of that obstacle. If he performs well for a likely playoff-bound team, he will more than recoup any lost money anyhow.

[Brad]

I'd agree, Scott, but I rather go home and continue to pull thirty year old layers of wallpaper off the walls of my guest bedroooms than watch a hockey game. Check that, I'd rather push the scraper into my finger for the umteen millionth time while removing said wallpaper than watch a hockey game.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Cliff Lee is in the minors.

Rogers is on the DL.

Gabbard is staying in the rotation?

Anyway sure if Jermaine Dye tickles your pickle then fine let's make that trade. It would have to include Abreu or Damon though, otherwise who plays and who sits? Obviously Giambi is the DH, we are stuck with the light hitting Phillips at 1B, Matsui in Left, Melky/Damon in Center and Abreu in Right. Where does that leave room for Dye?

[Brad]

Then Paul comes in a shines a little light on my clear lack of reasonable thinking about Gagne.

[Woosta YF]

Dye supplants Shelley Duncan. As for playing time, it's all about the matchups. Abreu (.268 SLG) and Damon (.340 SLG) should be sitting against LHP. When Giambi returns, Damon should be sitting most of the time.

Plus, Torre would pinch hit Dye for Abreu or Damon against an Okajima/Walker etc. Duncan - there's no way.

[Paul SF]

Sox make a trade.

According to Stt. Louis media, the Cardinals have acquired Joel Pineiro for a PTBNL.

Thanks as always to MLB Trade Rumors.com

http://www.hadleyonsports.com/newsletter.php?article_id=450

[Paul SF]

A minor league PTBNL, at that.

Not exactly Gagne or Dye, is it?

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Boy oh Boy Shelley's Dad must have a huge ego...Some of the SP's they take on are straight off the trash heap. Oh well.

[Paul SF]

... and Ken Rosenthal says the Yankees are "discouraged" about their chances at landing Gagne.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7072074

[John - YF (Trisk)]

...and Trisk says Yankee fans are "discouraged" about being 8 games out in the east and 4 out in the WC.

www.thisseasonblows.com

[Paul SF]

Also says the Sox' chance at Dye is "fading," while SOSH posters say they heard Jayson Stark on ESPN say the Sox are willing to include Hansen for Gagne.

[Devine]

I can see why the Sox might want both Gagne and Dye, but personally, I'd be more excited about Dye. I agree mainly with Sam that the bullpen is good and shouldn't be the first priority (though I see Paul's point that who knows if Papelbon can finish out the season, Gagne is injury insurance, etc.--Is "Gagne is injury insurance" a contradiction in terms?).

I just think with the Ortiz worries and Drew's underperformance that Dye might be a more critical piece...possibly THE piece.

[Paul SF]

Trisk, I checked, and you can still get ThisSeasonBlows.com.

[Nick-YF]

"... and Ken Rosenthal says the Yankees are "discouraged" about their chances at landing Gagne."

or the Yanks are publicly sending a message to the Rangers: "C'mon, dude, you're not getting Joba. Stop it!"

[Paul SF]

I can see that, Devine. Both players come with risks -- not least is the risk of tinkering with an already successful formula. Gagne's injuries v. Dye's age/ineffectiveness for much of this year. I go back and forth who I'd rather have myself.

I'd rather have a healthy, hitting Drew back, and i don't know anymore how likely that is to take place before enxt year.

[dc]

is the "player to be named later" aka pujols?

[sam YF]

Apparently Dye has a no-trade to the Sox and 3 other teams as well according to Edes. Another hurdle, albeit one that may be able to be overcame. But are the sox really willing to give Dye an extension on the downslope of his career as a 4th OF? Whats up with all these players having no-trades to the sox? Leverage I guess?

[Paul SF]

lol, I like the way you think, DC.

[Paul SF]

Edes says he thinks Dye has a greater chance of happening than Gagne.

[Paul SF]

Aaaaaand Buster Olney says the Prcotor-Betamit deal is done.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Awesome, does that mean we cut Cairo or Phillips? LOL

[Woosta YF]

At least the Proctor deal suggests Cashman is developing a nutsack with regard to Torre. Now DFA Cairo and stick him with Britton/Edwar/Chamberlain and they might another win or three.

[sam YF]

that trade sucks. Primarily because it means they couldnt get rid of Farnsworth. Watch out sox, wilson betemit is pushing us over the top.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

156 AB's - 10 HR's

.231 AVG - .359 OBP

4 E's in 53 games...

Yeah I suppose he is better then Cairo but is that really a pressing need getting someone better then Cairo?

[yankeemonkey]

I like this trade. Joba will take Proctor's spot in the 'pen (though pray not all of his innings!) and Betemit definitely bolsters the bench....provided he actually gets to play. I'm predicting Farnsy will bring in a huge haul of: a bag of balls, a (small) bag of sunflower seeds and 3 fungo bats. This blockbuster will probably happen between 2-3pm.

[Woosta YF]

I can't agree Sam.

Betamit is better than Cairo - now and going forward.

Proctor is addition by subtraction - it means Britton or Edwar.

And I bet they're trading Farns to the NL for whatever they can get. Again, addition by subtraction with Chamberlain.

Still need that RH bat - besides Glaus and Dye, Reggie Sanders would work nicely.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Sam I wouldn't count on that. Farnsy could still be traded or put on waivers.

[Nick-YF]

I put up a post at the top if you want to discuss the Betemit trade there.

[sam YF]

Is Joba gonna replace two RPs?
I realize Proctor has sucked lately but he still has a good arm.

[John - YF (Trisk)]

Woosta you are definitely either part of NoMaas or a very frequent reader of the site. I have figured it out.

Chamberlain CANNOT step into Proctor's role. He will be a guy who gets a few innings per week, not a work horse. Vizcaino is the 8th inning guy with Bruney and Myers leading up to that. If Joba is used in Proctor's role Torre should be castrated!

[Paul SF]

Not exactly safe to assume any that Chamberlain is going to be good out of the pen anyway, is it? Never mind the adjustment to the big leagues, he'll also be adjusting to a role he's never had before (I don't know this, but I assume he was raised as a starter).

Not to diss on a ballyhooed Yankee prospect, but if it were a Sox player, I'd be thriled at his imminent arrival and more than a little nervous if he were being asked right away to save the team's bullpen...

[John - YF (Trisk)]

No saving involved. I think the move would be more for seasoning purposes Paul.

As for working out of the pen I am fairly certain he did some closing at Nebraska, not full time but I believe he did. Also prior to this season a lot of "Scouts" (yes the same people who think Gardner is no Jacoby, LOL...I kid) thought Joba would be the eventual Yankee closer or set up man.

[sam YF]

The past couple of seasons have shown that a young pitcher can step into the pen and dominate for the end of a season. eg. K-Rod and Jenks Im not saying that Joba will necessarily do so but he does fit the mold by throwing gas. As a YF I am concerned about damage to his arm, I also think he can easily be an improvement over Farny

[Paul SF]

Yeah, I think Chamberlain can do a good job. I'd just be cocnerned if he was being asked to do Proctor's job or even Vizcaino's job right out the gate. Not to say he wouldn't excel; just that it doesn't seem to be smart to depend on him excelling.

[Brad]

Nothing would please me more than to see Torre use this kid six days a week because he's good. Use him in the seventh inning of every single game for the rest of the season. I love it.

[Paul SF]

The Star-Ledger says the Yankees do not expect to replace Procotr with Gagne, saying the Rangers are focuing on offers from Boston "or" Milwaukee.

The Brewers were a late entrant. Did they storm in with a blow-em-away offer?

[sam YF]

foxsports is reporting the rangers and sox have a deal for gagne dependent on him waiving his no trade.

Damn

[TJ]

Kason Gabbard is part of the deal with minor leaguers, likely David Murphy or Brandon Moss. Boston apparently has told Gagne he will share the closer role with Papelbon.

[TJ]

Boston.com says its Murphy whos part of the deal.