And So it (Almost) Begins

The Boston Globe jumps the gun and releases its Baseball Preview a day early. Peter Gammons was on ESPN Radio this morning making his predictions.  We are officially in that golden time where all things are possible and nothing is sure. Soak it up. This is one of the best weekends of the year.

Gordon Edes, Bob Ryan and Amalie Benjamin all pick the Sox to win the division and the World Series. Shaughnessy somehow picks the Blue Jays to win the East, with the Sox as the wild card and the Tigers as the champs.Gammons split the difference, picking the Sox to win the East and the Tigers to win it all.

ESPN, meanwhile, publishes its All-AL team. A-Rod and Cano are the Yanks' reps. David Ortiz and a new Sox acquisition we've apparently missed here at YFSF, "Manny Rodriguez," are the Sox' entrants. A-Rod and Santana are predicted to win the big awards (booooring). They also inexplicably predict Alex Gordon to win the AL ROY. Why? Matsuzaka won't be "as spectacular as Gordon" and would need 16-18 wins and low-3 ERA "to get everyone to get past his not-really-a-rookie status."

Let the arguments begin!

Comments

[yankeemonkey]

Joe Nathan = All-AL RP? Funny...

[bloodyank78]

Out of Edes, Ryan, Benjamin, and Gammons no one thinks the Yanks might win the East?
Riiigght. So Sox fans, on the eve of the 2007 season, are you guys all bright eyed and bushy-tailed saying "this is the year we knock the MFY's off the top and take the East?"

As I am prepared to announce on my blog this weekend in my awards preview post. The AL ROY race is basically a race that is one players to lose and no not Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Battle for second place could be fierce between Matsuzaka, Gordon and unlike most people I believe Pedroia will be in the argument as well, but the award is Delmon Young's to lose.

[Triskaidekaphobia]

Not only does Gammons think the Yankees will fall short of the Sox, he predicts them to miss the playoffs all together.

[LocklandSF]

I'm not saying a damn thing.

Go Sox!

[bloodyank78]

Yeah, the Yanks are gonna blow this year; that questionable, shaky rotation, aging position players, an aging closer. Yeah, no playoffs for the Yankees. I love it. For all those writers who predicted the Sox to win the East in 2006, that prediction went pretty well for them. (que little girl voice) "But the injuries!" Whatever.

[Triskaidekaphobia]

It baffles my mind....Yankees have holes, but Sox don't??? Good lord.

[Jim - YF]

Wow, Paul is angry Matsuzaka is not ROY. I have a strong feeling I'm going to be reliving this moment in eight months.

[Jim - YF]

And YF's getting upset about the "predictions" of Sox homers. This is a weird community you got here.

SI picked the Yanks. I'll take that objectivity, thanks.

Bristol is Boston South, but I'll be shocked if the majority there don't take the Yanks.

[Josh SF (D1)]

I like CHB's explanation for why the Brewers will finish in fourth...he's never heard of most of them. A master of his craft, that guy is.

I don't know where Gammons' predictions are or why he doesn't think the Yanks will make the postseason. I could guess...any criticism must focus on the rotation and probably includes the, 'but if Roger plays' caveat. Anyway I'd point out that as much of a homer as he sometimes is, Gammons was pretty spot-on last season, calling for a Cy-calibur season out of Wang and (I think) putting NY in first. So he's not always on our side.

Jim needs to look up the definition of the word "anger," or at least learn to stop equating every slightly negative/bemused emotion with blind fury.

[Triskaidekaphobia]

Gammons did his on The Dan Patrick Show.

[LocklandSF]

Ok, I will say something.

I'm actually with Schilling on this, the team whose starting rotation spends with least number of days on the DL will win the east.

[sam YF]

It seems to me the tide has turned a bit on the japanese players as ROY. If you remember Matsui did not win it his "rookie" year when he had much better numbers than Angel Berroa. I hope this is a sign of things to come. Im sure that Dice-K will have the best or among the best year among first year players but do SF really believe he should be considered among this group?

[Paul SF]

Sam, you seem to be underestimating Berroa's campaign. He was actually pretty good that year.

BY, Why so angry? What kind of predictions do you expect out of people who cover the Red Sox for a living? I certainly am not expecting any predictions of the Sox winning the East out of the three principal NY papers. We already know what Pete Abraham thinks. It seems that unless either of the two are going into the season in a dreadfully bad position (hasn't happened since 1997), you're going to expect the guys (and gals) who cover a team to be more optimistic about that team's chances.

[Josh SF (D1)]

In other news, MLB is kicking Pesky out of the dugout, again. I sort of understand the rule, and that Boston's been breaking it...but since they're literally the only club to do so, it's pretty clear the new 'strict enforcement' policy is aimed directly at them. Yes, in its neverending quest to screw as many people as possible, MLB has decided for a moment to turn away from its fans and focus on those a**hole former players who still love and try to stay involved in the game.

I've got mixed feelings about a Japanese player winning the RoY. On the one hand, given the constant blabbering about Matsuzaka's being untested and a gigantic question mark, it doesn't seem fair to exclude him. He's also technically a rookie to American professional baseball, given that this is his first year. On the other hand, putting him in the same category as an Alex Gordon or Delmon Young seems slightly disrespectful and dismissive of what he did in Japan...I'd say Japanese players do deserve to win it, and that Matsui got pretty screwed.

[Nate SF]

AL ROY: Matsuzaka
NL ROY: Kouzmanoff
AL Cy: Halladay (if injury free)
NL Cy: Sheets (if Brewers stay in contention)
AL MVP: Manny Rodriguez (with help from JD's protection)
NL MVP: A. Jones (walk year production)

I'm just sayin'...

[john]

Gordon Edes, Bob Ryan and Amalie Benjamin all pick the Sox to win the division and the World Series.

Genuine question: Do any writers not in Beantown pick the Sox to win the AL East, let alone the WS?

Lesser question: How many of the last 9 years did they pick the Sox for first?

[john]

Oops, didn't turn off those italics.

I think if you take all the predictions from around the country and average them out the finishing order is like this...

1. Boston (on paper they are very good, but paper dont win divisons)

2. New York/Toronto (split decision, Toronto didnt do much to improve but Frank Thomas will give some more punch in the lineup and New York has a very questionable rotation.)

3. New York/Toronto

4. Tampa Bay

5. Baltimore

New York can't be favored just ebcause they have won it for the past 9 seasons, they have serious question marks including a very questionable first base.

As for Schilling's comments, Boston is in better position to handle a rotation injury then New York is.

And The toss up could move from 2nd with Toronto and New York to first with Boston and New York if the yanks land Clemens, if Boston lands him, New York will be playing 4 months for second place.

[LocklandSF]

This Pesky thing really annoys me, seriously, MLB, what's the point? Being in that dugout is about the most important thing in the world to that man, the players love him, he's not getting in the way or hurting the game in any way, god, this just pisses me off.

[Tyrel SF]

Why is everything italicized? Did you break Typepad, John?

John, CHB picked Boston for the wild card, with the Division going to (wait for it, wait for it...) Toronto.

Pitching wins. It's what everyone from Torre to Gammons has been saying for years. I think it's pretty reasonable to look at the Sox and Yanks and conclude that the Sox have better pitching. Or wait, was it "pitching wins, unless you're the Yankees, in which case the weight of history takes over"? I forget.

[DAW]

"conclude that the Sox have better pitching"

On paper, yes, you have a better looking rotation. Only the games will ultimately tell - can't wait for them to start, so all this silly predicting will stop...

[Paul SF]

John, Shaughnessy picked the Jays to win the division. Likewise, the Street & Smith's preview magazine picked the Sox, even without Papelbon as closer. Buster Olney this morning picked the Sox to win the division though not the World Series.

I don't know the answer to your second question, and I'm not sure how to go about finding out with paying a bunch of money for article-by-article archives :-P

[nate]

Don't you know, only certain Japanese imports can win the ROY. Matsui got screwed. Dice K might as well get the shaft too.

[bloodyank78]

Sorry Paul. I was with two guys from school last night, both Sox fans, both from New Hampshire. They were goading me the whole night, we had some lively baseball debate. The, "Pavano? Opening Day? Haha reeal niice dude" got old and I guess I am still pissy.

[yankeemonkey]

Pavano-as-OD-starter thing: who really gives a hoot? Symbolically, sure, but otherwise does it really make a difference whether he starts April 2nd or 4th or 5th? I'm pretty sure the division isn't going to be won on Opening Day.

On paper, Sox have a better rotation than do the Yanks. I'm pretty sure that's what they said last year too. And look what the injuries wrought! Anyway, all this predicting business is a crapshoot....Let the games begin already!!

[sf rod]

keith olbermann, one of the staunchest and most insufferable YF's to ever have a mic in front of his mouth, predicted a yankee third place finish this year as well. oddly enough, he see's the O's taking over the second spot. he backed up these picks by saying the yankees will have a serious meltdown this year with a clubhouse in turmoil. how do you predict clubhouse turmoil? well, i'm gonna pick clubhouse turmoil to win ROY in the NL.

[john]

I don't feel particularly good about the Yanks rotation, but wouldn't be surprised to be pleasantly surprised. For example: Is Moose washed up? Can Pavano come back? (of course he can, which doesn't mean he will) Has Pettite put his injuries behind him? Will Wang improve? How will Igawa and the rookies do? There's plenty of potential for upside there, but downside too.

But there are plenty of questions about the Sox too. Dike-K and Beckett have to do it on the field. Schilling and Wake are a year older. And how 'bout that pen? (How do they get to Papelbon?) I honestly don't understand why people say the Sox have a great rotation -- they didn't last year.

You can win the SEASON with the offense, as the Yanks did last year. What's a LOT harder is winning the postseason without great pitching.

[Tyrel SF]

I didn't know Olbermann was a YF. Oh well, I still like his politics.

I have read several stories recently about the sucess knucklers have after age 40.

Wins after 40

Joe Niekro: 35
Charlie Hough: 67
Phil Niekro: 128

and

Hoyt Wilhelm: 129 Saves

[LocklandSF]

Age and Wakefield shouldn't be a real problem, if anything, like wine, the knuckle can get a lot better with time.

[Nick-YF]

Was Wake's injury a freak one last year? I think age affects even knuckleballers.

[LocklandSF]

Nick, yeah, it was a broken rib, he didn't even know how it happened, if memory serves me correctly.

Age certainly does affect everyone, but it's kinder to a knuckler than say, a power pitcher.

[Steve]

I don't think any of us really know the initial cause of Wake's rib issues last year.

Throwing a knuckle puts no real pressure or wear on the arm or body, and Wake doesn't have to hit or run the bases, either. Guys who throw them well can pitch as long as they want (assuming they can still field.)

if clemens can pitch a 90mph fastball at 45 Wake can throw a knuckler to 50

[Steve]

How old was Nolan Ryan when he retired? He was still throwing mid-90s gas.

I heard the only reason he gave up the game is because he didn't think he had good enough reaction skills on the mound any longer, like with a line drive coming right at him.

[Tyrel SF]

Bradford had some interesting stuff to say today. Here's some quote from John Farrell, after Bradford asked who made the biggest strides this spring -

"You look at the secondary stuff of (Josh) Beckett, which has been consistent. He has used his curveball and changeup with a greater percentage of overall pitch distribution, which has allowed him to relax and not rely solely on velocity. That has been very encouraging. You see the development of (Curt Schilling's) change-up. Clearly it is a pitch that will allow his fastball to be that much more effective. Him and Tek have been very good in their usage. He's thrown it first pitch, he's thrown it 3-2, ahead in the count, behind in the count. I think his change-up is really going to add some life to a 92-93 mph fastball. Occasionally he will telegraph it a bit with his body, but for the most part it's a solid average major league pitch and times a little bit above. It will definitely be a weapon for him.

"The consistency of J.C. Romero has been very good, particularly with his fastball command. Fastball command and first-pitch strikes with his fastball have been a major goal of his and ours and for the most part he has been able to do that. He's an integral part to our bullpen.

"I think most importantly there has been specifics laid out with pitchers, and for the most part they have been open. The interaction has been great and they have trusted the feedback. We are very fortunate to have a group of pitchers who don't shy away from work. Their self-awareness is good, and they are honest with themselves."

[sf rod]

um...nolans reaction time was pretty good with robin ventura.

purchase that moment in time here....
http://nolanryanfoundation.stores.yahoo.net/meetingonmound.html

[Paul SF]

The Sox' rotation collapsed last year because it wasn't as deep as this year. It had Schilling, Beckett and Wakefield. But going in, Wells was injured and Clement was a giant question mark. Arroyo was traded away, and Papelbon became the closer. When Wakefield went down, forget it.

Two significant flukey things happened to doom the pitching staff last year -- Wakefield's broken rib, and Wells taking a line drive off his already-injured knee during his first start back. Those two things do't happen, and the staff can 1. weather Schilling's second-half injuries, maybe even rest him longer so he could be fresher, and 2. only rely on Lester/Snyder/Tavarez for one spot instead of three. Jarvis, Johnson, Pauley and Gabbard never even enter the picture.

Of course, that doesn't mean the Sox make the playoffs. You still have injuries to Varitek, Crisp, Ramirez, Nixon, Pena and Ortiz to worry about, plus those injuries prohibiting worn-down guys like Lowell, Loretta and Youkilis from getting a rest. It was a mess.

All that to say: Anytime you lose two key starters to injury (and we're not even discussing Clement in that equation), you're going to have trouble. The difference now is that none of the Sox' five starters are a significant injury risk. Schilling is the likeliest, and he's very healthy -- he's no more likely to be injured than Mussina or Pettitte. Beckett's been discussed ad nauseum here, but the gist is that he likely helped the Sox more than hurt them in 2006, and that he is very likely to improve upon that performance this year. If any of them, God forbid, does go down with an injury, there is Lester, Snyder and Gabbard, not to mention Devern Hansack.

I feel much better about this team's pitching this year. Not only are the starters on paper much improved -- both over last year and in comparison to the Yankees -- but the depth is better than last year as well.

[john]

A professional writer said, "Him and Tek have been very good in their usage"? 1) Him? 2) What does "usage" mean in this context?

Clemens and Nolen Ryan are freaks. The logic here is like saying, if Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs then the Giambino can too. There is no logic.

The Sox rotation has questions. The Yankee rotation has more questions. That does not mean the Sox rotation will be better, although it certainly could be. I just don't understand all the people who say how great it will be.

[Paul SF]

John, that was a professional pitching coach with the pronoun error, not the professional writer.

I see Schilling, Beckett and Matsuzaka all winning atleast 16 games with Beckett leading the way with 21 this season Add in wakefield for 12 which is his career avcerage over a season and Tavarez/Lester for another 10 and thats a pretty damn good group of starters and it only gets better if Clemens chooses Boston which he will.

He regreted his choice last year and he wont do the same this year, he will go for the story book ending on a team with a solid rotation and very very good offense.

[Andrew]

The Yankees have proven again and again that awful rotations don't matter in the regular season if you've got the offense to back it up. The 2004 Red Sox had an amazing rotation with Schilling and Pedro, while the Yankees had their worst rotation in recent memory, and yet they still won the AL East (we won't go into the postseason details...)

The Sox don't have as great a rotation this year (you think Matsuzaka is going to win 21 games and post a 3.25 ERA? And Beckett will go under 4.00? Long, long shot. And then the rotations would be equal) and their offense is a bit better, although much, much, MUCH more injury-prone. But their bullpen is miles worse barring Papelbon, and that will lose them many games.

The Yankees, however, have an even better offense than in 2004, and it's really hard to have a rotation as bad as that one, and undoubtedly theirs is better this year. Their bullpen also is better with 3 pretty solid guys backing up God (and while it's true Tom Gordon is not there anymore, we also don't have guys like Heredia), with big upsiders like Bruney waiting in the back end, and Britton waiting in AAA.

People don't learn from history. The Red Sox have been overrated every season since 2004, and it's happening again this year. To say that a team like the Yankees with the best offense in the game, and one of the better rotations in the league, are going to finish third, is completely, inexcusably, idiotic.

[attackgerbil]

Anonymous: I can fairly see Schilling, Beckett and Matsuzaka winning 16 games barring injury. However, Beckett with 21? Nobody in the game won 20 last year. It's arguable that last year saw low output for wins totals in both leagues, but 21? Last year Santana and Wang won 19. Wang's hurt and everyone says he overachieved anyway. Beckett is not Santana. 21? Santana I can see, and one must respect Halladay. Otherwise, Beckett and the rest of the field < 21. That said, I do expect Beckett to not give up so many long balls this year.

[TJ Sox Fan]

I didnt realize I wasnt signed in :) Yes noone won 20 last year but Beckett won 16 ina rough transition to the AL and in his second season he should be more accustomed to it and should show a improvement.

Translating that into another 5 wins with a better bullpen isnt a ridiculous idea.

I think the AL will see a few 20 game winners this season.

[Nick-YF]

Win totals are a pretty arbitrary stat, and if anything, Beckett's and Johnson's totals from last year show how team-dependent that category is. If Beckett's ERA drops a run but he only wins 13 because the Sox happen not to hit for him, then, in my book, he still will have a better year than last. I think the 16 win total is illusory baseline stat to use, TJ.

[Paul SF]

"The Red Sox have been overrated every season since 2004, and it's happening again this year."

So by that logic, the Red Sox were overrated all TWO seasons since 2004 -- including one in which they went to the playoffs, finished with the same win-loss record as the Yankees and, like the Yankees, lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Therefore, they are overrated again. Wow. That's quite an interesting train of thought.

[Tyrel SF]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, but I don't buy it that the Yanks middle relief is "miles and miles" ahead of the Sox. I'm not so sure Proctor will hold up after throwing 104 innings last year, Farnsworth is eh, Myers pitched 30 innings last year, Vizcaino had a 3.5 ERA in the pitching friendly NL West. That is hardly fear inducing.

[Tyrel SF]

Anyone else see the Post's Cy Young prediction?

"CY YOUNG
Josh Beckett, Red Sox No one will benefit more from Daisuke Matsuzaka's arrival than Beckett, who, under less scrutiny and with more understanding when to use his off-speed stuff, will thrive. Minnesota¹s Johan Santana, the Angels' John Lackey, Oakland's Rich Harden, Baltimore's Erik Bedard, Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman and Toronto's A.J. Burnett and Roy Halladay make it a race."

[Nick-YF]

I guess the lesson is that anything can be predicted?

[TJ Sox Fan]

I can buy into that since earlier today i put Beckett my money favorite for CY Young with a 21-7 record, though I didnt go so far is to actually predict he will win it. I said it was too close to call with him, Papelbon, Santana, Haladay among others all in the run for it

[Nick-YF]

at least on paper and according to most projection systems, the Yanks' middle relief is better than Tavarez, Donnelly, Romero and company. But, again, these are all middle relievers and their performances tend to shift from year to year. Middle relief is a volatile animal.

[Tyrel SF]

Tj, you forgot to include Jeff Karstens.

[Paul SF]

Wow. I could see it, but I'm blown away that the Post actually predicted it.

I'm on record as believing Beckett will have a monster year, but I guess I've always figured Matsuzaka, Halladay or of course Santana would be better.

[Nick-YF]

TJ, do you really think Beckett's in Santana and Halladay territory?

[Whatever]

Well, Dayn Perry at Fox Sports has the Yanks at #1 in all of baseball in his preseason power rankings, and Steve Phillips on the ESPN telecast of the Yankee game today picked the Yanks to win the AL East, so in other words, Sox fans should stop drooling at the Globe's picks, and btw, those guys at the Globe are just afraid of their houses getting egged if they picked anybody other than the Sox.

[Nick-YF]

Phillips predicted the Yanks? Shit.

[TJ Sox Fan]

Beckett has the ability to be top 5 pitcher in all of baseball yes.

Will he perform that way this year? who knows, but he has the ability to and I think he will.

Im not syaing hes gonna blow past Halladay or Santana, I think the Cy vote will be very close this year but he certainly has the ability to be right there when its all said and done.

[Nick-YF]

Wow! I mean I get flack for saying that some Sox fans overrate Beckett, and here you have a case we're he's being predicted to compete neck and neck with Halladay and Santana.

[Whatever]

"Phillips predicted the Yanks? Shit."

Yeah, that could be the kiss of death. Heh.

[Whatever]

If Beckett wins the Cy Young, he should also be in line for Comeback Player of the Year.

[attackgerbil]

Nick stole my line, regarding Phillips.

[Nick-YF]

If Beckett wins, I will eat so much crow. The thought scares me.

[TJ Sox Fan]

Was he overrated in 2003 when he posted a 1.10 ERA with 19 K in 16.1 innings including a complete game shutout in the decisive game 6?

[Nick-YF]

He was very good in a very small sample.

Do you remember Jeff Suppan last world series?

[attackgerbil]

TJ, I think Beckett is a great pitcher. He's so good, he could rise above my expectations and be an outside legitimate contender for the CY. However, I think it is so incredibly difficult to work in the AL that a guy like Beckett could end up with a record that easily belies his talent. NY's experience with him when he was a Floridian aside, I just can not see him being more than a 15-7 pitcher in the Beast. And that's before thinking about injury hiatusesez; it's also not Beckett's fault; he pitches in the meatiest division of the toughest of the leagues. The deck is stacked against pitchers all the way around. Guys like Santana, Nathan, Mo, and Paps are all the more impressive because of where they punch their clock.

[Tyrel SF]

Beckett has as much "natural ability" as anyone in the game. If he can put it together and not get hurt, he can certainly be one of the 5 best in the league. It's a big IF, but there's no crime in being optimistic.

[Nick-YF]

There should be a crime in being too optimistic. It would protect people from a lot of heartache. Ah, that bitch called "Hope".

[Jim - YF]

Let me get this straight:

The Sox finish ten games out in third place with a starting rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Wake, and Wells.

Replace Wells with the Japanese Sushi special.

And I'm supposed to be scared?

Right, injuries to 40 year olds are fluky. Nice.

Same crappy bullpen. Same crappy lineup plus Nancy Drew (yeah Lugo career .740 OPS means nothing).

Again I'm supposed to be scared?

Yanks upgraded their top three with Pettitte. The back of the rotation only needs to be league average from among the four guys they have to choose from. They have the best pitching prospect in all of baseball waiting in the wings. They get a full year from Matsui and Abreu to add to their MLB leading lineup. Their bullpen is 7 deep and they have the GOAT closer at the end.

Who am I scared by?

Okay, yeah Josh Phelps is going to make or break the season.

Me, I'm just wondering if the Yanks break the 125 win mark. Cake walk.

[attackgerbil]

Tyrel: no doubt, I remember seeing Beckett looking like a master of the game facing formidable opponents; he _mowed_ them. For him to sustain over his ~30 starts is the trick. Again, I _think_ that it is really tough for hurlers throwing against the east (and the central, thinking about it; _look_ at the Tribe and the Twins deadly M-combo and the supporting cast heading into this year). The lineups they face are built to make pitchers look bad.

[Paul SF]

lol, Thanks, Jim. I needed a good laugh before I left work for the day... Knew I could count on you.

[Jim - YF]

Me, I'm still laughing about the predictions last year and then the results. 10 games back? Third place?

"The injuries!"

Hope does spring eternal.

[Tyrel SF]

"There should be a crime in being too optimistic."

I think if that were the case, fully 3/4 of the people here would be facing hard labor. And poor Jim might be looking at the chair (another three years of the same production from Posada, indeed).

[attackgerbil]

attackgerbil is a bit worried about the Yank rotation. Here's a quick summary, nothing to do with any other team:

The yanks lose a 17 game winner in Johnson, but no biggy (right). The Yanks start the season with their (arguably) best pitcher from 06 on the DL in Wang. Their 1 is Moose, whom has had a rough go in the post all the way through. Their 2 is Pettitte, returning to the team that didn't respect him and is also returning from the NL to the meat-grinder of the AL-Beast. Their 3(4?) is a pitcher from Japan who has yet to throw in the ML in a game of consequence. The 4(3?) is a recidivist injury monger whose accolades came as an NL pitcher and hasn't seen legit action as a starter since... The 5 is Darrell Rasner. Yeah, I don't like to think about it, because it's not a proud state of affairs.

Offensively? I think the Yanks are the best team 1-9 that will take the field, without a doubt. Pitching wise, I'm concerned. Very concerned. How could you not be?

[john]

Beckett has top 5 talent in all of baseball?

What do they put in the water in Boston?

TJ you gave those three pitchers more than 20 victories more than that professional prediction we saw a few days ago. I predict the final result will be in the middle.

If you're right, the Sox finish first. If the pros are right, the Sox finish third. More likely is a baseball pennant race.

[TJ Sox Fan]

I live in Brooklyn so if theres anything in the water its effecting Yankee fans more then Boston fans.

As for Pettite being an upgrade???

14-13 with a 4.20 era in the NL and Johnson was 17-11 with a 5.00 era in the AL how does that translate to being an upgrade? At best its a wash.

[john]

Beckett's best year in Fla:

3.38 15 & 8*

Pavano's best year in Fla:

3.00 18 & 8

I guess our starting pitcher Monday is in the top 4 in all of baseball.

* In 2003, he had a 3.04 era, but only went 9 & 8 in 142 innings. That's the same year Pavano had the 3.00 era, in 222 innings.

In 6 years, including his 9 and 8 year, Beckett has had 3 winning seasons, and only with the Sox did he win as many as 16.

That is not top 5.

[Triskaidekaphobia]

Note on Vizcaino:
Lefties hit .163 vs. Vizcaino, so you should not just sell his ability short because he pitched in the NL West. He also has a rubber arm, which is huge for pitchers in the pen.

I know this will get pissed on, but I am a baseball fan 1st, Yankee fan second and I honestly believe this team is as good as a we have seen in the Bronx since '98. Will that translate into 114 wins and a championship like '98, maybe/maybe not, but they have that type of ability. They won 97 games last year, a year filled with injuries and awful starting pitching. The Yankees DO NOT have that power pitcher, front line starter like the Sox or Blue Jays, but they have consistency and with the type of offense they have that's all they need.

Brewers fans should be optimistic, Yankees fans should be confident.

[john]

How does Pettite affect Beckett? If Andy has a poor year Josh will be more likely to throw his curveball for strikes?

I think most Yankee fans consider Andy a holding action for a good offense while young pitching develops. If he's better than that, so much the better.

[TJ Sox Fan]

I never said Pettite affected Beckett, one of the Yank fans commented how Pettite was an upgrade from last year, I just dont see how hes an upgrade from Johnson.

[Triskaidekaphobia]

Are you guys kidding me with Pettitte??? His elbow is FINE, slower F-I-N-E. That being said his numbers were inflated in Houston due to arm issues that did not get resolved until the 2nd half of last season. Look at his numbers in the 2nd half last year, they were great, not good, great. By his own admission he wasn't healthy until July of last year. Talk about beating a dead horse. It's like talking about Beckett's blister problems, uggh.

As for AG, chill out bud. Wang hurt his hammy not his arm, he will be back ASAP. The ship can be held a float until he gets back. You are really concerned in losing Unit??? He won those games because of the Yankees offense, not because he was impressive. FYI, he is starting the season on the DL. As for Mussina, Igawa and Pavano, that group knows how to pitch, they may not be Daisuke, Beckett, Schilling, but the Sox offense is not the Yankees offense either.

[Triskaidekaphobia]

TJ you obviously never saw Unit pitch for the Yankees if you don't think a consistent Pettitte is not an upgrade from Unit. Andy isn't a big K guy, but he is s battler who keeps you in games by ALL means. You should focus all your "Concern" on Wakefield and Tavarez and that stellar bullpen.

[sf rod]

pedroia just went deep. the kid does have a quick bat.

[TJ Sox Fan]

what is the obsession with the Yankees offense? its not all that great.

Over the past 4 seasons Boston has had the better offense in 3 of the 4 seasons except last years failed defense first season.

NY has had the "better lineup" but Boston has produced better then the Yankees. Im not saying they will this year but its not a forgone conclusion that NY will out perform Boston this season offensively.

[sf rod]

drew leaves the yard too. the balls a flying at the citizens bank.

[TJ Sox Fan]

im loving the new MLB gameday screen

[Whatever]

Randy Johnson enjoyed the best run support in the AL last year. Give a pitcher the best run support in the league and 33 starts and Joe Blow could win 17 games.

Andy Pettitte, after a stellar 2005 in which he was 5th in the Cy voting, pitched through nagging injuries in the first half of 2006, but got healthy and pitched well in the 2nd half, posting a 2.80 ERA after the break. While Pettitte is going back to the more potent AL, he's also going from hitter friendly Minute Maid park to the best park for lefties in baseball, Yankee Stadium with it's death valley in left-left center.

Pettitte is 34, Randy Johnson is 43. Pettitte is a great guy in the clubhouse, RJ was a surly asshole.

Bottom line: all things considered, it's an upgrade

[Triskaidekaphobia]

Obsession?

Varitek Vs. Posada = Posada
Doug M. Vs. Youklis = Youklis
Pedroia Vs. Cano = Cano
A-Rod Vs. Lowell = A-Rod
Jeter Vs. Lugo = Jeter
Manny Vs. Matsui = Manny
Coco Vs. Johnny = Johnny
Drew Vs. Abreu = Abreu
Papi Vs. Giambi = Papi

So out of 9 spots, you get 3. You are right, we shouldn't be optimistic. Our offense deserves no hype.

[Triskaidekaphobia]

Great post Whatever.

[TJ Sox Fan]

Nieves vs Mirabelli = Mirabelli
Cairo vs Cora = wash
Phelps vs Hinske = Hinske
Cabrera vs Pena = Pena

Just cause u didnt mention the bench which will be a big part of Bostons season.

You cant realistically call 2B because you dont know how well Pedroia will perform. Going into 2005 noone would have thought that Bellhorn would be out performed by Cano. Yes Cano has had a great 2 seasons but that doesnt mean he is a runaway better player then Pedroia so lets call that a wash for now.

Now for catcher, theres no proof that last year wasnt anything more then an injury plagued season and he cant bounce back from it. in 2005 both catchers were near even offensively with tek with ever so microscopic advantages. again for now this is a wash.

The advantages that jeter has over Lugo Manny makes up with Matsui. Im not sold on Coco Crisp but im not sold on Damon producing like last year either, damon still holds the advantage there.

Then theres RF. That also is a wash. I dont know how you can keep a strait face as you said Abreau is better.

The Sox bench has the far better advantage.

I dont think either team has an advantage offensively. And it certainly isnt some run away advantage that you seem to think it is.

[TJ Sox Fan]

now Youk has hit Bostons 4th HR of the game 5-1

How stupid can you get?

[TJ Sox Fan]

who is stupid?

[Josh SF (D1)]

"Me, I'm just wondering if the Yanks break the 125 win mark. Cake walk."

Any shred of sanity/credibility he may have been able to once hold claim to is now long gone. TJ...I think Boston's O will be good enough, but they aren't even close to NY. They should finish top-5 in the AL in runs scored, but I don't see them ending up better then 3rd; Cleveland could challenge NY in scoring and both Toronto (which, per their other offensive statistics scored fewer runs then they 'should' have last season) and Chicago still boast potent offenses. The difference will be pitching, specifically in the starting rotation, etc. etc. it's all been said before. Position-by-positions are misleading because they fail to address talent differential...in other words, A-Rod is a major offensive upgrade over Lowell, while the difference between Drew and Abreu is marginal at best.

Trisk...you really like this club better then the team that lost to the D-Backs in 01? Or to the Fish in 03? Look I like their offense to score 900+ runs at least...but look at what happened to Cleveland last year. Doesn't guarantee a spot in a division rich with pitching, which Boston and Toronto most definitely were not coming into 2006, or at least not compared to what they look like now. (Though, after Burnett, I hate Toronto's rotation and think their bullpen will regress significantly...which is why I'm not too concerned with them this season)

[dc]

matsui was more a victim of the anti-yankee bias than anything else...i hope dice-k isn't a victim of the anti-japanese veteran bias that was invented to justify the matsui snub...if he beats out the competition, he deserves to win...

why are we shocked that the yanks aren't picked to win?...most of these fortune-tellers aren't any better qualified to pick the winners than we are...they are acknowleging the improvements the sox made to their lineup, their superior starting pitching, and mgmt's coming to their senses about paplebon, and banking on the law of averages to convince the baseball gods that a 10 year run for the yankees is long enough...i wouldn't be surprised to see the sox take the division...i'm ok with the wild card...several teams have been quite successful in that position in recent years...um, it remains to be seen whether that plays out however...for example, does anyone think paplebon may have been a "one-hit wonder"?...no telling 'til we see i guess...

ag, with all due respect, the yanks and red sox may have one 16 game winner apiece...i don't see shilling, mats, and beckett all winning 16...the bullpen will blow enough leads to keep that from happening...you are overly concerned about the yanks rotation...they will win games...

don't worry nick, i think beckett peaked last year...that's as good as it gets...

[Josh SF (D1)]

"does anyone think paplebon may have been a "one-hit wonder"

Actually that's the first time I've heard anyone suggest it. ;-) He doesn't exactly have Shingo Takatsu-type stuff...only issue in my eyes is health.

[Triskaidekaphobia]

If you think you have the better bench, more power to you, I think both teams are weak. Mirrabelli is a name, not necessarily a good player.

"You cant realistically call 2B because you dont know how well Pedroia will perform. Going into 2005 noone would have thought that Bellhorn would be out performed by Cano. Yes Cano has had a great 2 seasons but that doesnt mean he is a runaway better player then Pedroia so lets call that a wash for now."

Are you INSANE? Do you watch baseball at all? Cano is a pure hitter. Great swing, hits to all fields, can bunt. is developing power and you want me to give you a wash with a guy who has thus far been ALL hype? You are redunkulous!

"Now for catcher, theres no proof that last year wasnt anything more then an injury plagued season and he cant bounce back from it. in 2005 both catchers were near even offensively with tek with ever so microscopic advantages. again for now this is a wash."

Ask your fellow Sox fans whose better. TJ really man, watch a few games of baseball this season.

"The advantages that Jeter has over Lugo Manny makes up with Matsui."

Manny is one of the best hitters of our time, so I won't argue that he is better then Matsui, but Matsui is solid .300/.380/25 HRS, I'll take that.

"Then theres RF. That also is a wash. I dont know how you can keep a strait face as you said Abreau is better."

You don't know how I can keep a 'Straight' face? Are you for real? Is Ashton Kutcher going to pop up on my screen any moment now? If you can't admit that Abreu is better then Drew, I am wasting my breath. Please look at their career numbers, please. Look at Abreus OBP.

"The Sox bench has the far better advantage."

Wily Mo and Melky are a wash and I will tell you why. Sure Wily Mo has the power advantage, but defensively, WOW, not even close son.

"I dont think either team has an advantage offensively. And it certainly isnt some run away advantage that you seem to think it is."

That "I" think it is....it's not just me TJ, the breakdown I gave is the same breakdown I gave on another thread that most if not all Sox fans in that thread.

[dc]

well, and i promise i'm not trying to start any bs-slinging d-1, but pap did have the injury, and given that closers tend to be touchy guys with short shelf lives anyway, i'm just wondering aloud...i like the kid and i think he's got the right stuff mentally and i like the way he pitches, but his ability to repeat last year has to be in the back of our minds...

[TJ Sox Fan]

Since 2003, last season was the only season NY had a better offense then Boston, NY did nothing to improve there offense.

On the other hand Boston has improved there offense drastically.

Injuries aside because both teams had them last season How can anyone justify saying either team has an offensive advantage in 2007?

[Triskaidekaphobia]

"Trisk...you really like this club better then the team that lost to the D-Backs in 01? Or to the Fish in 03?"

On paper this offense is as complete as I have seen in my lifetime (I am 31.) I watch a ton of baseball, so take it for what it's worth, if healthy this team can eclipse the '98 teams win total. I like the depth at pitching, it's not overpowering like Schilling, Daisuke and Beckett, but good enough to keep us in games until the offense can score some runs. We are missing that power guy, but maybe that appears in June or July. Now this all depends on health, as with all teams.