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Sunday, January 21, 2007

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Frankly, I'd question projections even more than I already do if they didn't have the Yanks winning at least 95 games in '07. So the overall picture seems about right, give or take.

Should be another dogfight for the AL East. Would we want it any other way?

Hey Paul, want to run the Blue Jays' projections, just for good measure? ;)

lol, Ummmmm no.

I have a hard time buying that Abreu's OBP will drop that sharply. Am I supposed to believe that he lost his eye and became jittery this offseason?

Once again, great piece, Paul. This is fascinating stuff. I am nervous already.

great work, Paul.

I agree, great post.

Thanks, Paul.

paul, you're an animal...thanks for putting all the effort into preparing the post...

paul, you're an animal...thanks for putting all the effort into preparing the post...

Paul, that was fantastic. Thank you for spending your time doing that. Now, I'm going to make some of my own projections. Robbie is going to hit 25 to 32 homers provided he doesn't get hurt, and Mr. Blue Lips is going to have a MONSTER season. You watch. Oh, for all you Sox Fans who love the Pats; H

Sorry, I posted before I was finished. What I intended to say was this:
Has the world turned upside down? Choke artist Payton beats the almighty Pats? I was laughing so hard. That is what Sox fans must feel like when they watch Jetes walk off the field when the Yanks punch out early from the playoffs lately. What a great night; anytime a New Englander has a bad sports day, I'm happy.

...new england fans are allowed to be smug about their football success in the past several years, much more so than their baseball results, which have been far less spectacular, although not without at least 1 highlight...be gracious in victory as well as defeat...

Ya, sounds reasonable. I only think Abreu has better projections, since well, he doesn't get 100 walks every year for no reason. I wish he has some more power back though..

Yeah, Abreu's stats are terrible, and Matsui only getting 350+ at bats? I think you should probably eliminate that, Matsui had played in every game until his injury, it's only reasonable to expect he'll play in nearly every game this year too.

Everyone else's projections look reasonable (except maybe Giambi who, while even playing hurt, managed 100+ RBI). Matsui's is way below his skill level. I say fix that, and you've got some excellent predictions.

And Rivera, no one projects him because he always outperforms it. I'd say another season of below 2 ERA and below 1 WHIP is in order, but that's just because he's done it so consistently. Plus, I doubt that Villone will be in the bullpen to put up those horrid numbers. And if Karstens pitches that horrible for that much, then it will only be because AAA Scranton abducted its entire roster.

So with those reasonable fixes, I think we can be a little more bullish on the Yankees, here :)

From BP Unfiltered:

"Just a very preliminary attempt to spit out team projections for the Yankees and the Red Sox based on the PECOTAs.

RS RA
Yankees 918 774
Red Sox 913 772

This is going to be fun."

I second that sentiment.

Oh, doh, you already got that up there. My bad.

Basically, both teams project to be ~95 win teams. Sounds right to me.

looks like it'll be the team that stays healthiest.

Paul thanks. Here's what I have from Baseball HQ and Ron Shandler, former advisor to the Cardinals. Slightly more optimistic then PECOTA.

Avg/OB/Slg
Damon 294/362/473
Jeter 309/374/454
Abreu 297/418/483
Giambi 252/395/519
Alex 294/386/540
Matsui 305/394/487
Jorge 270/364/471
Robbie 316/343/510
Doug 280/352/424

Moose 14-8 3.86
Wang 14-9 3.95
AP 15-7 3.57
Pavano 8-6 4.27
Igawa 13-8 4.24

Mo 4-3 37 Saves 2.64


Villone is no longer on the Yankees. He is a free agent and has not yet signed with a team.

Ahh, thanks, Mike. :-P

Where are these predictions from Pavano stemming from?

> Where are these predictions from Pavano stemming from?

For me, it's from the unbridled optimism I hold that he will avoid nefarious hazards such as sitting down too quickly. And standing up. And driving. And walking. And sharp objects like the edges of loose-leaf paper.

That Baseball HQ projection for Pavano is ridiculously optimistic. Same for Igawa. It seems like they forgot this is the AL East, not the NL West.

Igawa is an unknown, so I can see that, but Pavano is known all too well; the projections for him seem to have been written by his Mother. If they said 5 wins or 10 wins, I may buy into it, but having not pitched in a couple years is just as bad as being injured. Guys just don't step on the mound after a long time off and start winning games - especially when they are named Pavano.

I cannot defend the predictions for Pavano, I can only pass them along. But what I will say is Ron Shandler is one of the most respected men in his field, so I would imagine whatever he sees is based on fact not on the fact he has a man crush on Pavano.

"If they said 5 wins or 10 wins, I may buy into it, but having not pitched in a couple years is just as bad as being injured."

5= Good
10 = Good

Projected 8 = Bad

You will need to explain that math Brad.

Finally, I'll give you the "Aggressive" Pavano projection if you give me the FAR from aggressive Abreu predictions.

Abreu = 277 (PECOTA)
Pedroia = 284 (PECOTA)

Hmmm......



Buster Olney disagrees with PECOTA about Robbie (so do I). Note what he says about A-Rod:

Now the 24-year-old Cano appears poised for a monster season. Limited to 122 games last year, Cano still managed to rack up 41 doubles, one triple and 15 homers, and drive in 78 runs with a .342 average. His batting average in each of his last three months of play: .398, .351, .373. If, in fact, Alex Rodriguez exercises an opt-out option in his contract after the 2007 season and leaves the Yankees -- and many baseball executives expect that he will -- the emergence of Cano will be a major reason why the team might not think it's that big of a deal.

He also says this about the Sox and Tampa Bay:

The Rays could go into the future with the best offensive outfield in the game, with Carl Crawford and Delmon Young flanking Baldelli. But trading Baldelli might give the Rays the best chance of landing the kind of power arm they so desperately need to even approach a .500 record, which is why they listened to offers all winter for Baldelli. There could be a natural fit for a deal down the road between Boston and Tampa Bay: The Red Sox have some good pitching prospects and might be looking for a long-term solution in center field, and Baldelli is a New Englander.

John, Olney's wrong about one thing. A-Rod's leaving would be a huge deal.

This is a big year for A-Rod. A bad year for him is a good year for practically every one else, but he who else can contribute 121 rbis and still seem like a handicap too often? In 2005 he had only had 9 more rbis, but he seemed so much more important to the team's success.

If he opts out, who else is going to pay him $25 million a year?

did you see what Soriano got on the open market? I could see A-Rod getting...A-Rod money again.

I am not sure why Cano makes an Olney column that is really about lesser known youngsters on the rise, it seems out of place, considering that Cano is firmly established at this point.

If Cano only played in a larger market with more media saturation, he'd get the respect he really deserves.

I don't know, 12 wins for Peittitte and Wang? The Yankees are going to score for Andy, if Randy can squeek 17 wins with a 5.00 ERA Andy should match that. And 60+ RBIs for Matsui and Abreau? Are they predicting them to be injured, because if not that's insulting. That would be the worst Yankee line up in 10 years. Also how could they predict Cano will have such a drop off at his young age? How could you base predictions on averages for a guy who hasn't even played a full season?

Chuck, PECOTA and other projection systems predict wins very conservatively. In the Bill James Handbook, for example, Johan Santana and Chris Carpenter are the only pitchers with more than 16 wins, and no one has 20.

PECOTA also predicts minor miracles for Boston's rotation and bullpen and seriously hates the Yankees, it seems. Wins don't matter, they're a purely quantitative stat that have very little standing on a pitcher's performance. See: Randy Johnson 2004.

PECOTA seems to be really conservative on the Yankees, yet for Boston it predicts nearly everything going right. I don't really think it will be that close of a race this year. It's too bad, because September just wasn't as exciting without a spirited and good Red Sox team on the Yankees' tails.

Check that statement on the PECOTA's projection of the Sox rotation. I was looking at BIS, which is slightly ridiculous as to almost be amusing. PECOTA is conservative on almost all pitchers.

Why's Cano in the story with Kendricks, Crosby and Phillips? He's younger than two of the three, had fewer years in the bigs than the same two, and Olney thinks he has a big upside and represents a big change in the way the Yanks do business.

You will need to explain that math Brad.

I'm sorry, Trisk. I misread the stats between Pavano and Pettitte. My mistake. Either way, I think it's still a stretch to hope for anything at this point.

the pavano and igawa predictions are not so outrageous when lined up against those for the sox pitchers...if i recall, most of them are expected to see significant bounce-back years...based on what exactly?...one theory is "better luck" for beckett...please...these are nothing more than predictions based on some hokey math models built by guys with too much time on their hands...have fun, but don't take any of it too seriously...

Robby has switched to #24, in preparation for Rocket's announcement. More drama.....Better have Wily Mo pick a new # just in case.

Igawa will be in the conversation for rookie of the year. i know he throws in the high 80s and he has weak offspead pitches but i think with some major league coaching he will fair better then matsuzaka because matsuzaka has immense pressure to succede

Alright, no offense but i think these projections are ridiculous. Im not going to write a whole speech here but here is one HUGE piece of evidence to back me up even though i can think of a ton. Matsui, is here projected to get only a mere 60 RBI's! The guy before last season when he got hurt had hit in 100 every other season. Even when he came back he was hot this year. Matsui will have his regular .300/25 HR/100+ RBI season. MAYBE somewhere in the 90's considering the Yanks have so many other weapons.

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