81 Down, 81 To Go

Nothing soothes the soul the morning after a shoulda-had-it Red Sox loss better than the Yankees being decimated, 19-1 (NY tab heds: "Old Gory" and "Happy B-Day, Boss." The Post was more creative, but the Daily News captured the essence of the 'holiday'). Not as good as if Mike Timlin had managed to not give up five runs in the eighth inning, but better than a mere three-game lead in the AL East.

Also soothing to the soul: Realizing the Red Sox are on pace for 100 wins with half the games played -- and also on pace for 902 runs, a fourth straight 900-run season. In that spirit, let's take a look at the easiest of stats projections -- just multiply by two and you, too, can be an expert prognosticator!

• Mark Loretta: 204 hits, 36 doubles, .312 BA. Last Sox player with 200 hits -- Mo Vaughn, 205, 1998).
• David Ortiz: 54 HR, 152 RBI, 104 BB (all career highs -- shift that!)
• Kevin Youkilis: 182 hits, 42 doubles, 112 runs, 20 HR, 80 RBI, .307 BA, .413 OBP (124 Ks, but I'll trade those for the extra pop and the high OBP every time).
• Mike Lowell: 58 doubles, 18 HR, 82 RBI -- might be higher if his bat wasn't so damn slow.
• Manny Ramirez: 46 HR, 126 RBI, .312 BA, .443 OBP (a real off year, as we can see).
• Trot Nixon: .332 BA, .437 OBP, 12 HR, 84 RBI

These actually all appear pretty likely. Ortiz and Manny usually hit their strides in July and August. The fact that they are this hot now bodes well for good numbers the rest of the year. M-LOr and Youk have been pictures of consistency (tossing Loretta's May slump), Lowell too has been surprisingly consistent. Trot remains the question mark, as always, because of the injury concerns.

• Curt Schilling: 20-6, 3.63 ERA, 218 K, 28 BB, 7.78 K/BB (good for eighth-best single-season ratio since 1900).
• Josh Beckett: 20-8, 4.59 ERA, 176 K, 46 HR, 208 IP
• Tim Wakefield: 12-16, 3.90 ERA
• Jonathan Papelbon: 4-2, 0.43 ERA, 52 SV

Curt's been good enough this year to easily have 14 wins already, if not for bad luck and poor pen. Nevertheless, 20-22 wins is pretty realistic. Twenty wins isn't very realistic for Beckett unless he can continue to win an ungodly 10 out of every 11 quality starts. Wakefield should finish with a winning record and a few more wins than projected -- his luck/run support has been abominable. Papelbon will be Papelbon, although I can't see the ERA staying as low as it is.

Comments

[Nick-YF]

I'd be surprised if Lowell kept it up. And while Schilling has been excellent, you have to wonder about whether he'll slow down in the 2nd half given his age and injury history.

[tom yf]

Funny, I had a different take on the situation... I feel like nothing soothes the soul after an epic beating like the Sox wasting Ortiz' heroics. :-)

[Devine]

Your silly comments can't sting me when we could win 100 games this year and have no fifth starter (and barely a fourth one).