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Tuesday, November 15, 2005

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Manny's remaining contract doesn't look so bad, at this point. If just one more above-average outfielder signs for 13M+ per year the Sox may have some interested buyers. Looking at VORP and WS, Matsui can't touch Manny, and considering deferred monies the contracts aren't insanely dissimilar. On the other hand, there aren't many teams that can assume contracts over a certain critical mass, and both of these deals may be above that line.

oops! I posted in the wrong thread. From below:

Isn't Manny making upwards of $20 million per year the next three? That's over $7 million more per year. And Manny's older. He better be ahead of Matsui handily in win share and VORP.

Also, you have to factor in Hideki's connection to the Japanese market. He probably is still a bargain for the bombers.

Yes, Manny has about $60M due for the next three years, I think about 6-8 of it is deferred (still money due, but the annual pro-rated number is therefore lower for the duration of his contract). And the shorter duration of Manny's contract, though at a higher dollar value, is probably a good thing. As for VORP and WS, Manny is significantly better in both categories, in VORP by a factor of almost 30%, in WS by 35% - the only AL player stronger than Ramirez in WS was A-Rod. As for the value of Matsui from a marketing standpoint, that may be true, but it also will make his contract even more onerous as he gets older, slower, and his marektability to the Japanese market is transferred to the next Ichiro (or Hideki).

ok. I'm a bit surprised you also didn't comment on how this will affect the Damon negotiations. The rumor is that Damon is asking for a 7 year contract. Will the Sox have to overpay for his services?

Perhaps. But don't underestimate the low-IQ, long-haired, weak-armed demographic that is Boston (heck, I am from Boston!), and hence the marketing value of Jesus. Damon's a goldmine! Seriously, if he's asking for 7 years (and I assume you are joking since I haven't read that anywhere) someone should request a urine test pronto, from him and Boras.

And regarding Manny vs. Hideki, I just want to be clear that I don't think Ramirez' contract looks good, but based on Matsui's deal it looks better than it did yesterday.

re: Damon asking for 7 years. I kid you not. From a newsday article:

"The Yankees were discouraged by Scott Boras' asking price of $84 million over seven years for Johnny Damon, so they will look seriously at signing Brian Giles with the thought of using a rotation in centerfield."

It's from this link:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/printedition/ny-spyanks164514987nov16,0,3933460.story?coll=ny-sports-print

these links always get cut off when I post them here, so sorry in advance if it happens again.

Wow, that offer is, no disrespect to the mentally challenged, retarded. If it's true, of course. It's like the Sox said "three and 36" and instead of good faith negotiation Boras went straight to idiot territory - if that's true the Sox should just walk away from the table laughing (as a negotiation tactic, not because they aren't still interested in bringing Damon back). I see no reason to take this very seriously. I often got in arguments with one of my co-owners in rotisserie baseball (when I used to play) during trade talks with other teams. I would always try to begin negotiations by targeting a clearly superior player on an opposing team and ask for that player, knowing that if they accepted I would do well, and if they rejected it they might counter-offer with something still to my advantage, or I myself could move our target downward to a less-superior player but still end up ahead - that's negotiation 101, right? But my co-owner would want to counter with an even more ridiculously stacked offer, like "superior player B in addition to superior player B". I never understood that tactic, more often than not it got us laughed at, which isn't the best way to be taken seriously. Does Boras think the Sox are run by the Dolans?

If the sox do give him a 7 year deal, I think it would be safe to say that Theo's loss would a major one.

It looks like that was an offer of services to the Yankees, not the Red Sox, though I imagine Boras called up Lucchino and said "we talked with the Yankees about 7/84" which would be technically true but not the full story.

The Yankees tiny-brain trust had enough gray matter to laugh it off, it seems.

If, for whatever insane reason, the Sox do give Damon more than three years this winter, there's a good chance I'm going to lose my mind.
If Pedro can't get a four year deal at 14mil/per, there is ABSOLUTELY no way Damon gets anywhere close. That would be almost admitting that the Pedro move was a bad one. And while I don't think that Pedro would still be putting up his Mets numbers in Boston, he's still better than 90% of the AL pitchers out there, and deserved the fourth year. There was probably, no definitely something else that caused all that to go sour.
FWIW, the Mets website is saying that if the Cameron deal goes through, the next person to come to NY is possibly Delgato (the Marlins are... well we've all heard it). Does anyone else think that Delgato is going to be the next first baseman in Boston while Manny gets shipped to the Mets?
Even if Boston ate part of that contract (say 3mill/per for the next three), that seems like a great three way trade for everyone involved.
Man, would I love to have Delgato and Papi together in Fenway. Not to mention the guy has absolutely crushed the ball at the Fens for years now.

Delgado is a great player (we picked him as AL MVP in our preseason picks 2 years ago) and he'd be fearsome on the Sox. But what would the Marlins get from this deal?

A sense of internal peace...

lastings milledge and aaron heillman, maybe even another blue-chip prospect.

But didn't the mets already kibbosh a Milledge-Manny deal with the Sox, sans middleman?

yeah, I forgot that. Although, I thought the deal was all right in terms of players but the Mets and Sox couldn't agree on money totals. And now Delgado has become available and circumstances have changes.

It's beginning to look like all the big trades and signings will have been made before the Sox have a GM. I assumed when they let Theo walk that they had a plan...

via Boston Dirt Dogs, the Sox were going after Beckett but the Rangers are now offering more, including Hank Blalock

is there anyone in the bidding for Delgado other than the Sox and the Mets? Los Angeles-Anaheim?

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